{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked registration v1.0.0 on hypothesis, estimand, population (1,323 outdoor/open regular-season games 2018\u20132025 with reported wind and temperature), primary 15+ mph vs below-10 mph comparison, the four registered outcomes, the adjusted per-5-mph baseline with temperature/temperature-squared/week/season controls, and the registered sensitivities (10 and 20 mph thresholds, piecewise spline at 10/15/20, leave-one-season-out). All six registered withhold_if gates plus rights/provenance and temporal-separation passed, and the two-execution result hash matched. Every numeric claim in the model-authored ArticleDraft reconciles to analysis.primary_effects, adjusted_per_5_mph, and sample fields. The article consistently frames results as observed associations, explicitly denies causal and pregame-forecast interpretations, and labels average target depth as a non-registered secondary outcome. Required artifacts (registration, results, threshold/adjusted/spline/season-sensitivity tables, chart, gates, reproducibility, source manifest) are listed in the evaluation run. Remaining issues are disclosed scope limitations, not departures from the registration.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Holm adjustment family differs from registered primary set",
      "evidence": "registration.outcomes lists four primaries, but estimate_threshold_effects applies _holm_adjust across all five OUTCOMES including average_depth_of_target. The article methods disclose this and correctly note it is conservative for the four primaries; all four primary Holm-adjusted p-values remain \u22640.033.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the disclosure. In a future registration version, either add average target depth to the registered outcome set or restrict the Holm family to the four primaries so code and registration agree."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Season-level weather coverage below 85% for 2022 and 2023",
      "evidence": "data_quality_blockers includes season-weather-coverage affecting [2022, 2023]; the registered gate is overall coverage (0.89) and passed. The article limitations disclose the two low-coverage seasons.",
      "recommendation": "No change required; retain the limitation. Consider the registered remediation (NOAA Global Hourly join) for a future run."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Registered sensitivities executed but not summarized in article",
      "evidence": "research_audit.sensitivity_checks confirm 10/20 mph thresholds and the spline were run; the article states these 'are not summarized in this article' and that the headline cut alone cannot distinguish a step change from a gradual slide.",
      "recommendation": "Acceptable as a disclosed scope limitation. Optionally cite the adjusted-spline-effects.csv artifact so readers can inspect the shape."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Numeric reconciliation of article to analysis outputs",
      "evidence": "Dropback 54.0%\u219252.1% (-1.8, -3.4 to -0.4), completion 60.3%\u219258.0% (-3.4 to -1.1), EPA 0.056\u2192-0.011 (-0.067, -0.104 to -0.031), points 46.1\u219242.3 (-3.8, -6.2 to -1.3), adjusted points -1.39 (-2.26 to -0.52) and EPA -0.020 (-0.033 to -0.008), 1,323/1,487 (89%), 1,251 dropback games, 153/143 high-wind, 871/822 calm, 31 games at 20+ all match analysis.json.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Causal and predictive claim separation",
      "evidence": "Estimand text, temporal_validation check, caveat callout, and limitations all state the result is a retrospective association, not a causal effect and not a pregame forecast evaluation. The title is descriptive ('scored 3.8 fewer combined points') rather than causal.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Immutable shared figure caption",
      "evidence": "The shared figure shows only two of the four primary outcomes by bin; the caption flags the sparse 20+ mph bin (n=31). This is a shared immutable asset per replay_review_contract.",
      "recommendation": "Record only; no variant-level action."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "registration (research-registration.json)",
    "analysis.json (primary_effects, adjusted_per_5_mph, sample, data_quality_blockers, research_audit)",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "data/evaluation-run.json",
    "data/gates.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "article (ArticleDraft blocks, methods, limitations)",
    "article.md",
    "publication-assets (wind-primary-effects table, wind-offense-by-bin figure)",
    "provenance.json",
    "replay_review_contract"
  ],
  "model": "anthropic/claude-fable-5.1",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T04:09:25.778789+00:00"
}