{
  "role": "statistician",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The model-authored article reports the locked 15+ mph versus sub-10 mph comparison on the four registered primaries with numbers that match the supplied primary_effects and adjusted_per_5_mph records to reported precision, frames results as retrospective associations consistent with the locked estimand, keeps the observed-versus-forecast boundary explicit, reconciles the 1,487 to 1,323 to 1,251 game counts, discloses the middle-band exclusion, the 20+ mph sample of 31, the 2022-2023 coverage shortfall, and the absence of venue/opponent/offense controls. No leakage, outcome-construction, or fabrication issue is present. Remaining items are warnings and notes that do not require changes before publication, provided the caveat callout remains visible.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Secondary outcome claim traceability (average target depth at 15 mph threshold)",
      "evidence": "The article states average target depth 'showed no supported difference at the 15 mph threshold', but the supplied analysis.json primary_effects only contains the four primaries; the threshold-level ADOT estimate lives in data/threshold-effects.csv which is referenced by the claim ledger (wind-adot-null, status supported) but not reproduced in this bundle. The adjusted per-5-mph ADOT estimate (-0.030, 95% CI -0.106 to 0.046) is consistent with a null but is a different specification.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the ADOT null clearly labeled as a secondary, non-registered outcome (as the article already does) and ensure the threshold-effects.csv artifact is published alongside so the threshold-level null is inspectable; no text change required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Estimand boundary in actionable guidance",
      "evidence": "Body text: 'That supports shading a passing game's expectations down when reported wind reaches that range.' The locked estimand is observed association, not pregame forecast value; the same paragraph and the 'Where the evidence stops' callout immediately state that observed wind is only known after kickoff and that forecast value is not established.",
      "recommendation": "The caveat callout must remain visible in the published article; the guidance is acceptable as written only because it is bracketed by the explicit forecast disclaimer."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Selection and confounding disclosure",
      "evidence": "Neither the threshold comparison nor the adjusted model controls for venue, home team, opponent, or offensive quality; complete-case sample is 89% of the outdoor schedule with 2022 and 2023 below 85% coverage (data_quality_blockers season-weather-coverage). Article limitations and callout disclose both.",
      "recommendation": "No change required; retain the venue/opponent confounding and coverage limitations in the published limitations list."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Multiplicity and p-value reporting",
      "evidence": "Holm adjustment is applied across five threshold outcomes (four primaries plus ADOT), which is conservative for the primaries. Bootstrap p-values of 0.0 for completion rate and pass EPA are a 4,000-draw resolution floor (true value <1/4000), but the article reports only intervals, not p-values.",
      "recommendation": "If p-values are ever surfaced, report them as p < 0.0005 rather than 0.0."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Attrition reconciliation",
      "evidence": "1,487 outdoor/open schedule games minus 164 missing weather/join = 1,323 analyzed (reconciled: true). Neutral dropback rate drops to 1,251 games via the 20-play minimum; threshold groups 822 + 143 = 965 exclude the 10-14 mph band. Article methods state both the 1,251 figure and the middle-band exclusion.",
      "recommendation": "None; counts are consistent across bundle and article."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Temporal leakage and target definition",
      "evidence": "Outcomes are constructed from same-game play-by-play with explicit exclusion of kneels, spikes, aborted and deleted plays; neutral filter uses wp 0.2-0.8, score within 14, downs 1-2, >120 seconds remaining. Analysis is retrospective with no forecast feature; leakage check and temporal-separation gate passed.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Immutable shared asset: figure and table",
      "evidence": "The shared bin chart plots 20+ mph (n=31) alongside adequately powered bins; caption and article text flag it as sparse. Table reports unadjusted differences and says so.",
      "recommendation": "Recorded as a note per replay contract; no variant action."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "data/evaluation-run.json",
    "data/gates.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "publication-assets-adapter.json",
    "provenance.json"
  ],
  "model": "anthropic/claude-fable-5.1",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T04:10:09.772517+00:00"
}