{
  "slug": "when-wind-changes-nfl-offense",
  "title": "At 15+ mph reported wind, NFL outdoor games lose about 3.8 combined points versus sub-10 mph games, 2018–2025",
  "dek": "Across 1,323 outdoor and open-roof NFL regular-season games from 2018 through 2025, games reported at 15 mph or higher showed lower dropback rate, completion rate, pass efficiency, and combined scoring than games below 10 mph.",
  "answer": null,
  "email_subject": "NFL outdoor games at 15+ mph wind: -3.8 combined points vs sub-10 mph, 2018-2025",
  "email_preview": "In 1,323 outdoor/open NFL games (2018-2025), 15+ mph wind games averaged 42.3 combined points vs 46.1 in sub-10 mph games, with lower completion rate and pass EPA per dropback.",
  "series": "Fantasy Football Weather",
  "article_kind": "finding",
  "lead": "Wind is one of the few game-day conditions fantasy managers can actually check before kickoff, and the evidence says it starts to matter at a specific spot: 15 mph. In a study of 1,323 weather-complete outdoor and open-roof NFL regular-season games from 2018 through 2025, games reported at 15 mph or higher averaged 42.3 combined points, versus 46.1 in games below 10 mph — a drop of 3.8 points per game (95% interval: -6.2 to -1.3). The damage was not limited to scoring: passing volume, completion rate, and pass efficiency all declined in the same direction.",
  "blocks": [
    {
      "type": "heading",
      "text": "What changed at 15 mph",
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": null,
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "paragraph",
      "text": "The study compared 153 games at or above the registered 15 mph threshold against 871 games below 10 mph. Neutral early-down dropback rate fell from 54.0% to 52.1% (-1.8 points, 95% interval -3.4 to -0.4), meaning offenses leaned on the run more when the wind picked up. Completion rate slipped from 60.3% to 58.0% (-2.3 points, 95% interval -3.4 to -1.1). The efficiency hit was the largest in relative terms: pass EPA per dropback went from +0.056 in calm games to -0.011 in windy ones, a -0.067 change (95% interval -0.104 to -0.031).",
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": null,
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "table_ref",
      "text": null,
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": "wind-primary-effects",
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "paragraph",
      "text": "One thing did not clearly move: average target depth. In an unregistered exploratory check, there was no supported difference at the 15 mph threshold, so the pattern looks like fewer and less efficient throws rather than a shift toward exclusively short passes.",
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": null,
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "heading",
      "text": "The pattern holds up, but only to a point",
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": null,
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "paragraph",
      "text": "The direction of every primary result was stable when each season was left out in turn, and a continuous analysis adjusting for temperature, week, and season fixed effects pointed the same way — for example, completion rate fell about 0.8 points per additional 5 mph of reported wind (95% interval -1.1 to -0.4). But the extreme end of the scale is thin: only 31 games reached 20+ mph, so the 20 mph threshold is underpowered and should not be treated as a standalone cutoff.",
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": null,
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "figure_ref",
      "text": null,
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": "wind-offense-by-bin",
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "callout",
      "text": "These are retrospective associations from observed game conditions, not causal effects — and they do not prove that a pregame wind forecast improves projections. Use them as context for what windy games have historically looked like, not as a projection input.",
      "label": "Where the evidence stops",
      "artifact_id": null,
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "heading",
      "text": "What this means for fantasy decisions",
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": null,
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    },
    {
      "type": "paragraph",
      "text": "The practical takeaway is a threshold, not a panic button. Below 15 mph of reported wind, the historical differences in this sample were small enough that weather alone is a weak reason to bench a passer or receiver. At 15 mph and above, the combined evidence — fewer dropbacks, worse completion rate, negative pass efficiency, and roughly four fewer combined points per game — makes wind a legitimate tiebreaker in close lineup calls, especially for QB-WR stacks whose value depends on efficient passing volume. Because the effect is a game-level association, it applies to the game environment broadly; it does not tell you any specific player will underperform, and running-game pieces have historically been on the favorable side of the shift in dropback rate.",
      "label": null,
      "artifact_id": null,
      "items": [],
      "metrics": [],
      "players": [],
      "callout_style": "note"
    }
  ],
  "methods": [
    "Population: NFL regular-season games at venues recorded as outdoors or open, with reported wind and temperature, 2018 through 2025 (1,323 weather-complete games of 1,487 scheduled).",
    "Primary comparison: games at or above the preregistered 15 mph threshold versus games below 10 mph, with unadjusted game-level differences and 95% intervals from 4,000 game-level bootstrap draws.",
    "Continuous sensitivity: HC3 robust OLS per 5 mph of reported wind, adjusting for temperature (linear and quadratic), week, and season fixed effects; a registered piecewise-linear spline at 10/15/20 mph was also evaluated.",
    "Stability: leave-one-season-out checks confirmed the direction of all primary effects; the 20+ mph threshold (31 games) is underpowered and outside standalone publication scope.",
    "Estimand: observed association between reported game wind and offense; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation."
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Weather coverage was below 85% in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, limiting complete-case representativeness; a NOAA Global Hourly join is the registered remediation.",
    "Only 31 games reached 20+ mph, so no standalone claim is made for extreme wind.",
    "Average target depth showed no supported difference in an unregistered exploratory check.",
    "Results are retrospective associations from observed conditions and do not establish pregame forecast value."
  ],
  "data_through": "2025 NFL season",
  "reading_minutes": 4
}