{
  "role": "code_methods_reviewer",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The implementation matches the locked registration: population (2018\u2013latest completed season, REG, outdoors/open, weather-complete), primary 15 mph threshold vs the preregistered <10 mph baseline, sensitivity thresholds 10/20 mph, registered piecewise-linear spline at 10/15/20 knots, temperature linear/quadratic plus week and season fixed effects, 4,000-draw bootstrap and HC3 robust intervals, and leave-one-season-out direction stability. Inputs are limited to the approved nflverse schedule and play-by-play files with verified SHA-256 provenance and rights status. No temporal leakage: observed game weather is used only retrospectively, the estimand explicitly disclaims forecast value, and no post-kickoff information enters a projection feature. Missingness is handled by complete-case restriction with a coverage gate (>=85% overall, passed at 0.890) and per-season shortfalls recorded as data-quality blockers rather than silently dropped; minimum-denominator filters (20/20/30/15 plays) are applied before outcome construction. Attrition is bounded and reported (1,487 scheduled, 1,323 analyzed, 164 excluded, reconciled). Baselines are fair and registered. Reproducibility is deterministic: hash-derived seeds, double execution with matching result hashes, and a recorded code SHA. All required outputs (results, threshold/adjusted/spline/season-sensitivity tables, chart, gates, registration, reproducibility record) are present with matching hashes. Article numbers reconcile with the analysis JSON and claim ledger, and the 20+ mph underpowering and non-forecast scope are correctly withheld.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "bootstrap_p_value_floor",
      "evidence": "analysis.primary_effects reports p_value 0.0 and holm_adjusted_p 0.0 for completion_rate and pass_epa_per_dropback",
      "recommendation": "With 4,000 bootstrap draws, report a floor such as 1/4001 or '<0.00025' rather than an exact zero p-value."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "registration_self_attestation",
      "evidence": "run_weather_wind_study writes registration.json with locked_before_results: true in the same execution that produces results",
      "recommendation": "The registration constants verifiably match the analysis code, but a preregistration timestamp external to the run would strengthen the lock claim."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "per_season_coverage_gate",
      "evidence": "2022 and 2023 weather coverage fell below 85% but only the overall coverage gate is enforced; the shortfall is recorded as a data-quality blocker",
      "recommendation": "Acceptable because the registered withhold condition is overall coverage and the limitation is disclosed in the article, but consider a per-season gate in future registrations."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "analysis.json",
    "evaluation_run",
    "release_gates",
    "reproducibility",
    "registration",
    "provenance",
    "claim_ledger",
    "article",
    "publication_assets"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T04:26:47.475804+00:00"
}