{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked preregistration: population (2018\u20132025 outdoor/open regular-season games with reported wind and temperature), primary 15 mph threshold versus below-10 mph baseline, the four registered primary outcomes, 4,000-draw bootstrap and HC3 intervals, the 10/15/20 mph sensitivity thresholds, the registered piecewise-linear spline, and leave-one-season-out direction stability all appear in the code and results. All registered release gates passed, reproducibility hashes matched, and required artifacts (results.json, threshold-effects.csv, adjusted-effects.csv, adjusted-spline-effects.csv, season-sensitivity.csv, figure, registration, gates, provenance) are present. The article's numeric claims reconcile with the analysis output, and the estimand is consistently framed as a retrospective association, with explicit callouts separating it from causal effects and pregame forecast value. The two data-quality blockers (2022\u20132023 weather coverage; only 31 games at 20+ mph) are disclosed limitations, not departures from the registration, and the article correctly keeps 20+ mph outside standalone scope. The average-target-depth null is correctly labeled as an unregistered exploratory check rather than a registered finding.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "registration_match",
      "evidence": "registration.json locks population, 15 mph primary threshold, four primary outcomes, controls, bootstrap/HC3 uncertainty, and withhold conditions; analysis.py implements each and results.json reports them without substitution.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "artifact_completeness",
      "evidence": "All artifact_hrefs (results, threshold/adjusted/spline/season-sensitivity CSVs, figure, registration, gates, reproducibility, provenance) are present; reproducibility.json shows matching first/second hashes (97fb72a1...).",
      "recommendation": "None."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "disclosed_scope_limitation",
      "evidence": "Weather coverage below 85% in 2022 and 2023 (season-weather-coverage blocker) limits complete-case representativeness; the registered NOAA remediation is disclosed in the article limitations.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the limitation prominent; the NOAA Global Hourly join remains the registered remediation before any stronger representativeness claim."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "disclosed_scope_limitation",
      "evidence": "Only 31 games at or above 20 mph versus the 100-game requirement (extreme-wind-sample blocker); the article and publication_scope correctly exclude standalone 20+ mph claims.",
      "recommendation": "Do not promote any 20+ mph threshold claim until the registered sample requirement is met."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "predictive_causal_separation",
      "evidence": "Estimand, temporal_validation, and the article's 'Where the evidence stops' callout all state the results are retrospective associations, not causal effects and not evidence of pregame forecast value; no projection-input claim is made.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "unregistered_secondary_disclosure",
      "evidence": "Average target depth is analyzed in code but is not among the registered primary outcomes; the article and claim ledger explicitly label its null result as an unregistered exploratory check.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "registration.json",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "results.json",
    "threshold-effects.csv",
    "adjusted-effects.csv",
    "adjusted-spline-effects.csv",
    "season-sensitivity.csv",
    "wind-offense-by-bin.svg",
    "gates.json",
    "reproducibility.json",
    "evaluation-run.json",
    "provenance.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "claim-ledger.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T04:24:55.330598+00:00"
}