{
  "cohort_years": [
    2010,
    2022
  ],
  "draft_pick_trend": {
    "log_odds_coefficient": -0.7198961735980419,
    "odds_ratio": 0.48680279631901935,
    "odds_ratio_95_ci": [
      0.4082394687990359,
      0.5804851823885586
    ],
    "standard_error": 0.08979855603416456,
    "unit": "32 picks later"
  },
  "drafted_receivers": 412,
  "headline": {
    "day_3_ci": [
      0.03506211241962322,
      0.09552102023698665
    ],
    "day_3_n": 240,
    "day_3_top_36_rate": 0.058333333333333334,
    "round_1_ci": [
      0.4902496270033425,
      0.746796702790099
    ],
    "round_1_n": 51,
    "round_1_top_36_rate": 0.6274509803921569
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Top-36 PPR is a fantasy-usefulness threshold, not a universal definition of NFL success.",
    "The study evaluates drafted receivers only; undrafted free agents are outside the estimand.",
    "Injuries, depth-chart opportunity, quarterback play, and team context are part of the observed outcome rather than controlled causes.",
    "Round-level estimates average across players and should inform priors, not replace prospect-specific evidence.",
    "The source snapshot ends with the 2024 season, so 2023 and later draft classes do not yet have complete three-year windows."
  ],
  "outcome_window": "rookie season through Year 3",
  "player_season_windows": 1236,
  "population": "NFL-drafted wide receivers in the 2010\u20132022 draft classes",
  "primary_hit_definition": "At least one top-36 regular-season PPR finish among NFL wide receivers from the rookie season through Year 3",
  "rounds": [
    {
      "n": 51,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 19,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.37254901960784315,
      "round": 1,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.3137254901960784,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.5294117647058824,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.746796702790099,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.4902496270033425,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 32,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.6274509803921569
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 10,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.15873015873015872,
      "round": 2,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.14285714285714285,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.2698412698412698,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.5044159599340502,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.27117289491083674,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 24,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.38095238095238093
    },
    {
      "n": 58,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 4,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.06896551724137931,
      "round": 3,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.1206896551724138,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.1896551724137931,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.383776308133588,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.16345403519517457,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 15,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.25862068965517243
    },
    {
      "n": 60,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 2,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.03333333333333333,
      "round": 4,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.016666666666666666,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.03333333333333333,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.2217902059985814,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.05767647403450049,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 7,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.11666666666666667
    },
    {
      "n": 52,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 1,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.019230769230769232,
      "round": 5,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.038461538461538464,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.07692307692307693,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.22971918891062054,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.05396895756082726,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 6,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.11538461538461539
    },
    {
      "n": 67,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 0,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.0,
      "round": 6,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.0,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.014925373134328358,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.0798205197313466,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.002639503757676784,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 1,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.014925373134328358
    },
    {
      "n": 61,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 0,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.0,
      "round": 7,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.0,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.0,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.05924591620194442,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.0,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 0,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "secondary_definitions": [
    "Top-36 finish as a rookie",
    "At least one top-24 finish by Year 3",
    "At least one top-12 finish by Year 3"
  ],
  "study": "Rookie WR Hit Rates by Draft Round v1",
  "tiers": [
    {
      "capital_tier": "Round 1",
      "n": 51,
      "top_12_rate": 0.3137254901960784,
      "top_24_rate": 0.5294117647058824,
      "top_36_rate": 0.6274509803921569
    },
    {
      "capital_tier": "Round 2",
      "n": 63,
      "top_12_rate": 0.14285714285714285,
      "top_24_rate": 0.2698412698412698,
      "top_36_rate": 0.38095238095238093
    },
    {
      "capital_tier": "Round 3",
      "n": 58,
      "top_12_rate": 0.1206896551724138,
      "top_24_rate": 0.1896551724137931,
      "top_36_rate": 0.25862068965517243
    },
    {
      "capital_tier": "Rounds 4\u20137",
      "n": 240,
      "top_12_rate": 0.0125,
      "top_24_rate": 0.029166666666666667,
      "top_36_rate": 0.058333333333333334
    }
  ]
}