{
  "created_at": "2026-08-30T22:40:51.492210+00:00",
  "design": "Include every wide receiver selected in Rounds 1\u20137 from 2010\u20132022, assign zero production when no weekly record exists, rank all NFL wide receivers by annual PPR points, report Wilson intervals by round, and estimate the pick-level odds trend. Freeze top-36 as the primary definition before inspecting player examples.",
  "estimand": "Round-specific cumulative probability of at least one top-36 regular-season PPR finish from the rookie season through Year 3 among drafted wide receivers.",
  "hypothesis": "The probability that a drafted wide receiver records a top-36 PPR season by the end of Year 3 declines materially with each later NFL draft round.",
  "model": "deterministic/offline-preregistered",
  "required_outputs": [
    "complete drafted-player cohort",
    "first-three-season outcome panel",
    "round hit rates with Wilson intervals",
    "top-36, top-24, and top-12 sensitivity table",
    "pick-level odds trend",
    "two publication charts"
  ],
  "risks": [
    "outcome-definition sensitivity",
    "injury and opportunity are embedded in observed fantasy finishes",
    "small late-round hit counts",
    "draft capital is predictive rather than causal"
  ],
  "role": "researcher"
}