{
  "forecast": {
    "expected_tds_mae": 2.378665178543106,
    "expected_tds_rmse": 3.032568457709385,
    "last_year_actual_mae": 2.6098003629764066,
    "last_year_actual_rmse": 3.3593059519979502,
    "mae_improvement_pct": 8.856431614933845
  },
  "limitations": [
    "The model observes season-level opportunity, not route-level or red-zone context.",
    "Next-season evaluation conditions on returning to at least 40 targets, creating survivor bias.",
    "Expected touchdowns are a baseline, not a player-specific projection or causal estimate.",
    "The public source snapshot ends with the 2024 season; this study tests an evergreen claim rather than ranking 2026 players."
  ],
  "model": {
    "features": [
      "targets",
      "receptions",
      "receiving_yards",
      "receiving_air_yards",
      "receiving_first_downs"
    ],
    "minimum_targets": 40,
    "ridge_penalty": 5.0,
    "type": "ridge-regularized linear expected-touchdown model"
  },
  "next_season_pairs": 551,
  "player_seasons": 1478,
  "population": "WR/TE regular-season player-seasons with at least 40 targets",
  "regression": {
    "quintiles": [
      {
        "current_tds": 2.954954954954955,
        "expected_tds": 5.620333415422787,
        "n": 111,
        "next_tds": 4.288288288288288,
        "over_expected": -2.665378460467833,
        "regression_quintile": "Most under"
      },
      {
        "current_tds": 3.5,
        "expected_tds": 4.735830576846506,
        "n": 110,
        "next_tds": 4.418181818181818,
        "over_expected": -1.2358305768465059,
        "regression_quintile": "Under"
      },
      {
        "current_tds": 4.3,
        "expected_tds": 4.4284377152303085,
        "n": 110,
        "next_tds": 4.381818181818182,
        "over_expected": -0.1284377152303086,
        "regression_quintile": "Near expected"
      },
      {
        "current_tds": 5.4363636363636365,
        "expected_tds": 4.5678739020455446,
        "n": 110,
        "next_tds": 4.6909090909090905,
        "over_expected": 0.8684897343180916,
        "regression_quintile": "Over"
      },
      {
        "current_tds": 8.245454545454546,
        "expected_tds": 5.0376131905624915,
        "n": 110,
        "next_tds": 5.427272727272728,
        "over_expected": 3.2078413548920537,
        "regression_quintile": "Most over"
      }
    ],
    "residual_vs_next_change_correlation": -0.4649145622772583
  },
  "seasons": [
    2014,
    2024
  ],
  "study": "Touchdown Regression v1",
  "uncertainty": {
    "mae_delta_95_ci": [
      0.0874572276548623,
      0.37821220269597516
    ],
    "mae_delta_tds": 0.23113518443330072,
    "probability_expected_better": 0.9994,
    "samples": 5000,
    "seed": 4444
  },
  "walk_forward_predictions": 950,
  "walk_forward_test_seasons": [
    2018,
    2024
  ]
}