{
  "created_at": "2026-08-30T22:01:10.634806+00:00",
  "design": "Aggregate regular-season nflverse player data, require 40 targets, fit an expanding-window ridge model for each 2018\u20132024 test season, then compare both signals with the same player's following season.",
  "estimand": "Difference in next-season forecast error between prior-year raw receiving TDs and prior-year expected receiving TDs among returning WR/TE seasons.",
  "hypothesis": "Receiving touchdowns above a cross-fitted opportunity baseline regress toward the baseline in the following season.",
  "model": "deterministic/offline-preregistered",
  "required_outputs": [
    "walk-forward predictions",
    "next-season pairs",
    "bootstrap interval",
    "quintile chart",
    "forecast-error chart"
  ],
  "risks": [
    "survivor bias from the next-season target threshold",
    "omitted red-zone and route-level opportunity",
    "non-causal interpretation"
  ],
  "role": "researcher"
}