{
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "/home/runner/work/fourth-down-labs/fourth-down-labs/artifacts/touchdown-regression/2026-08-31-touchdown-regression-v1/figures/regression-quintiles.png",
    "/home/runner/work/fourth-down-labs/fourth-down-labs/artifacts/touchdown-regression/2026-08-31-touchdown-regression-v1/figures/forecast-error.png",
    "/home/runner/work/fourth-down-labs/fourth-down-labs/artifacts/touchdown-regression/2026-08-31-touchdown-regression-v1/figures/2024-overperformers.png"
  ],
  "created_at": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
  "decision": "block",
  "findings": [
    {
      "check": "source_urls_present",
      "evidence": "analysis.limitations[3] refers to 'the public source snapshot ends with the 2024 season', but no dataset URL, version identifier, or retrieval date appears anywhere in the bundle.",
      "recommendation": "Attach the source URL, snapshot version, and retrieval date for the underlying data before this can pass provenance review.",
      "severity": "blocking"
    },
    {
      "check": "numeric_claims_map_to_artifacts",
      "evidence": "research_memo.required_outputs lists 'locked forecasts', 'evaluation report', 'attrition table', and 'deviation log', but none are present in the bundle. Only three figure paths are supplied and their contents cannot be inspected, so the forecast metrics (expected_tds_mae 2.378665178543105, expected_tds_rmse 3.032568457709385, last_year_actual_mae 2.6098003629764066, last_year_actual_rmse 3.3593059519979502, mae_improvement_pct 8.856431614933879), the uncertainty statistics, and all five regression quintiles map to no verifiable artifact.",
      "recommendation": "Include the evaluation report, attrition table, locked forecasts, and deviation log artifacts, or a metrics artifact that the reported numbers can be traced to.",
      "severity": "blocking"
    },
    {
      "check": "license_and_attribution",
      "evidence": "The bundle contains no license field, no attribution or acknowledgment language, and no caveat about underlying data rights. License compatibility cannot be confirmed, and there is no attribution text whose correctness could be preserved.",
      "recommendation": "State the dataset license explicitly and include the required attribution and rights caveats verbatim.",
      "severity": "blocking"
    },
    {
      "check": "population_counts_traceable",
      "evidence": "player_seasons 1478, next_season_pairs 551, and walk_forward_predictions 950 are reported with no data artifact or source URL backing them.",
      "recommendation": "Trace these counts to the dataset snapshot or an attrition table artifact.",
      "severity": "blocking"
    },
    {
      "check": "memo_analysis_divergence",
      "evidence": "The memo's registered estimand (OLS slope of winsorized next-season TD rate on current-season TD rate with position fixed effects) and hypothesis (H1: 0 < beta_1 < 1) are not tested anywhere in the analysis. The delivered model is a ridge-regularized expected-touchdown count model (ridge_penalty 5.0) over targets, receptions, receiving_yards, receiving_air_yards, and receiving_first_downs; no slope estimate, rate-based outcome, or hypothesis test is reported. The memo lists 'post-hoc modification' as a risk, and the deviation log that would document this divergence is absent.",
      "recommendation": "Either deliver the registered estimand test or supply the deviation log documenting the authorized change.",
      "severity": "blocking"
    },
    {
      "check": "model_registration_match",
      "evidence": "research_memo.model is 'linear' while analysis.model.type is 'ridge-regularized linear expected-touchdown model'; research_memo.design claims an 'annual-preseason lock' but no locked-forecast artifact is present to evidence it.",
      "recommendation": "Reconcile the registered model and design with the delivered analysis, or document the deviation.",
      "severity": "blocking"
    },
    {
      "check": "coverage_counts_reconcilable",
      "evidence": "950 walk-forward predictions over test seasons [2018, 2024] versus 551 next-season pairs is unexplained. If [2018, 2024] is a two-season test set, 950 predictions is implausible against roughly 134 qualifying player-seasons per season (1478 over 2014-2024); if it is a 2018-2024 range, a large share of predictions lack an evaluable next-season pair, which is survivorship the missing attrition table should quantify.",
      "recommendation": "Supply the attrition table reconciling predictions, evaluable pairs, and test-season coverage.",
      "severity": "blocking"
    },
    {
      "check": "timestamp_consistency",
      "evidence": "research_memo.created_at is 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z while the artifact directory is dated 2026-08-31; the exact-midnight timestamp reads as a placeholder and no revision history explains the gap.",
      "recommendation": "Confirm the memo creation timestamp and attach revision history.",
      "severity": "blocking"
    }
  ],
  "model": "claude-opus-4-1-20250805",
  "role": "citation_checker",
  "summary": "Provenance checks fail. The bundle's summary statistics are internally consistent, but no source URL, license, attribution text, or underlying-rights caveat appears anywhere, and none of the research memo's required outputs (locked forecasts, evaluation report, attrition table, deviation log) are present as artifacts. Every central number is therefore untraceable, which is blocking under policy. No citation may be reconstructed from memory to repair this."
}