{
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article.md",
    "research-memo.json (locked)",
    "provenance.json",
    "model-parameters.json",
    "data/walk-forward-predictions.csv",
    "data/next-season-pairs.csv",
    "data/attrition-by-season.csv",
    "data/regression-quintiles.csv",
    "figures/regression-quintiles.png",
    "figures/forecast-error.png"
  ],
  "created_at": "2026-08-31T01:18:39.871511+00:00",
  "decision": "pass",
  "findings": [
    {
      "check": "Preregistration adherence: design, estimand, model, population",
      "evidence": "Locked memo specifies regular-season nflverse data, >=40 targets, WR/TE, expanding-window ridge for each 2018-2025 test season, comparing prior-year raw TDs vs prior-year expected TDs on the following season. Executed analysis matches on all points: population='WR/TE regular-season player-seasons with at least 40 targets', minimum_targets=40, ridge penalty 5.0, features [targets, receptions, receiving_yards, receiving_air_yards, receiving_first_downs], walk_forward_test_seasons [2018-2025], article states the model 'was trained only on earlier seasons' (cross-fitting satisfied via walk-forward fitting, consistent with the memo's own design field). The reported estimand (paired MAE delta 0.3104, CI [0.1755, 0.4502]) is exactly the registered estimand.",
      "recommendation": "None required.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "Required outputs exist and reconcile",
      "evidence": "All six memo-required outputs are present: walk-forward predictions (data/walk-forward-predictions.csv, 1,078 rows), next-season pairs (data/next-season-pairs.csv, 649), attrition by season (data/attrition-by-season.csv), bootstrap interval ([0.1755, 0.4502], 5,000 samples, seed 4444), quintile chart (figures/regression-quintiles.png), and forecast-error chart (figures/forecast-error.png). Attrition arithmetic reconciles: 649 evaluable + 301 below threshold = 950 completed-season cases; + 128 pending = 1,078 = walk-forward predictions; retention 649/950 = 0.6832 matches. Quintile n's sum to 649 (130+130+129+130+130), matching evaluable pairs.",
      "recommendation": "None required.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "Article-to-analysis number consistency",
      "evidence": "Every cited statistic matches analysis.json: 649 pairs, MAEs 2.65 vs 2.34, 11.7% improvement, paired delta 0.31 with CI 0.18-0.45, 5,000 resamples, quintile extremes 8.3->5.3 (decline ~3.0, matching the email subject) and 2.9->4.4, both MAEs >2 touchdowns, seasons 2014-2025, five registered features, figure references resolve to inventoried artifacts.",
      "recommendation": "None required.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "Predictive vs causal claim separation",
      "evidence": "The article frames the headline as a predictive benchmark comparison ('predict next season better'), states the model 'is a benchmark, not a causal estimate of touchdown skill,' and hedges application guidance as a population-level tiebreaker 'not an individual projection adjustment with a known magnitude.' Analysis limitations likewise state expected TDs are 'a baseline, not a player-specific projection or causal estimate.' This matches the registered non-causal-interpretation risk.",
      "recommendation": "None required; maintain this separation in any copy edits.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "Survivor bias from next-season >=40-target conditioning (registered risk)",
      "evidence": "Registered risk is disclosed in both analysis.limitations and the article's 'Where this can break' section, including the point that selection can affect both tails differently and the net direction of forecast-comparison bias is uncertain. The 649 evaluable pairs are volume survivors; the 11.7% improvement therefore generalizes to returning-volume players only. This is a disclosed scope limitation, not a departure from the registration.",
      "recommendation": "No change required before publication; retain the survivor-bias qualification if the article is edited.",
      "severity": "warning"
    },
    {
      "check": "Unreferenced 2025-overperformers artifacts",
      "evidence": "figures/2025-overperformers.png and data/2025-overperformers.csv exist in the inventory but are not referenced in the article, which also disclaims current player-ranking use ('this is not a current player-ranking model'). No unsupported claim is currently made.",
      "recommendation": "If these artifacts are surfaced later (e.g., in email or social copy), present them as historical illustration consistent with the article's disclaimer, not as current rankings or individual projections.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "Bootstrap probability_expected_better = 1.0",
      "evidence": "This is a proportion within a single bootstrap of one evaluation sample (5,000 resamples, seed 4444), not an independent-replication probability. The article appropriately does not cite it and correctly notes the resamples 'are not independent replications.'",
      "recommendation": "Do not surface this value as a standalone probability of superiority without the single-sample qualification.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "Run-manifest claim in reproducibility section",
      "evidence": "The article states the run manifest records URLs, SHA-256s, code path, seed, model coefficients, walk-forward predictions, bootstrap outputs, reviewer findings, and publication decision. Source URLs, SHA-256s, seed, and model parameters are verifiable in the bundle (provenance.json, model-parameters.json, analysis.json); reviewer findings and publication decision are pipeline fields finalized at publication (published_at is null). No memo-required artifact is missing.",
      "recommendation": "Confirm the run manifest is complete (including reviewer findings and publication decision) at publication time.",
      "severity": "note"
    }
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "role": "researcher",
  "summary": "The executed study matches the locked preregistration with no material departures. All six required outputs exist and reconcile internally (1,078 walk-forward predictions; 649 evaluable next-season pairs plus 301 below the 40-target threshold plus 128 pending; quintile n's sum to 649). The registered design was followed: WR/TE regular-season player-seasons 2014-2025 at >=40 targets, expanding-window ridge (penalty 5.0) over the five registered opportunity features, test seasons 2018-2025 trained only on prior seasons. The registered estimand is reported as specified: expected TDs beat raw TDs by 0.31 MAE (2.34 vs 2.65, 11.7% improvement) with a 5,000-resample paired-bootstrap CI of 0.18-0.45. Every statistic and figure reference in the article matches analysis.json. Predictive claims are kept separate from causal claims, and all four registered risks (survivor bias, omitted red-zone/route context, non-causal interpretation, snapshot staleness) are disclosed in both the analysis and the article. The one warning concerns the inherent survivor-bias scope limitation, which is disclosed and therefore not blocking."
}