{
  "attrition": {
    "evaluable_next_season_pairs": 649,
    "not_evaluable_at_40_target_threshold": 301,
    "pending_next_season_data": 128,
    "retention_rate_completed_seasons": 0.6831578947368421,
    "walk_forward_predictions": 1078
  },
  "figure_artifacts": [
    "figures/regression-quintiles.png",
    "figures/forecast-error.png",
    "figures/2025-overperformers.png"
  ],
  "figure_contract": {
    "figures": [
      {
        "alt_text": "Grouped bars for 649 returning WR/TE season pairs. The highest touchdown-over-expected quintile averages 8.3 receiving touchdowns in the current season and 5.3 next season.",
        "axes": {
          "x": {
            "domain": [
              "Most under",
              "Under",
              "Near expected",
              "Over",
              "Most over"
            ],
            "label": "Current-season receiving TDs minus expected TDs (quintile)",
            "scale": "categorical",
            "unit": "ordered quintile"
          },
          "y": {
            "domain": [
              0.0,
              9.0
            ],
            "label": "Average receiving touchdowns per player",
            "scale": "linear",
            "unit": "receiving touchdowns",
            "zero_baseline": true
          }
        },
        "claim_metrics": {
          "top_quintile_current_tds": 8.307692307692308,
          "top_quintile_decline_tds": 3.038461538461539,
          "top_quintile_next_tds": 5.269230769230769
        },
        "denominator": 649,
        "file": "figures/regression-quintiles.png",
        "id": "regression-quintiles",
        "legend": [
          {
            "encoding": "orange bar",
            "label": "Current-season receiving TDs"
          },
          {
            "encoding": "dark green bar",
            "label": "Next-season receiving TDs"
          }
        ],
        "population": "649 consecutive WR/TE season pairs; both seasons have at least 40 targets",
        "sha256": "a93c33032dc30166d3b648f159853a35250f09c43e9d92c32b06b8d77ef7126b",
        "time_frame": "Walk-forward predictions and next-season outcomes through 2025",
        "title": "WR/TEs returning to 40+ targets, 649 pairs (2018\u20132025 data)\nTop TD-over-expected quintile fell from 8.3 to 5.3 receiving TDs next season"
      },
      {
        "alt_text": "Two bars compare next-season mean absolute error across 649 WR/TE pairs: 2.65 touchdowns for last-year actual TDs and 2.34 for expected TDs.",
        "axes": {
          "x": {
            "domain": [
              "Prior-season actual TDs",
              "Prior-season expected TDs"
            ],
            "label": "Forecast baseline",
            "scale": "categorical",
            "unit": "forecast method"
          },
          "y": {
            "domain": [
              0.0,
              3.2
            ],
            "label": "Next-season receiving-TD mean absolute error",
            "scale": "linear",
            "unit": "receiving touchdowns",
            "zero_baseline": true
          }
        },
        "claim_metrics": {
          "expected_tds_mae": 2.3398484955208003,
          "last_year_actual_mae": 2.650231124807396,
          "mae_improvement_pct": 11.711530605058181
        },
        "denominator": 649,
        "direct_labels": [
          "2.65 TD",
          "2.34 TD"
        ],
        "file": "figures/forecast-error.png",
        "id": "forecast-error",
        "legend": [],
        "population": "649 consecutive WR/TE season pairs; both seasons have at least 40 targets",
        "sha256": "51d4f3c2266a4f4592768597b16f806db93770b1f50518d22865382da721ab6d",
        "time_frame": "Walk-forward evaluation seasons 2018\u20132025",
        "title": "WR/TEs returning to 40+ targets, 649 pairs (2018\u20132025 data)\nExpected-TD baseline cut next-season forecast MAE 11.7% vs last-year TDs"
      },
      {
        "alt_text": "Dumbbell chart for the ten 2025 WR/TE receiving-TD overperformers, comparing each player's expected and actual touchdowns.",
        "axes": {
          "x": {
            "domain": [
              0.0,
              15.0
            ],
            "label": "2025 receiving touchdowns",
            "scale": "linear",
            "unit": "receiving touchdowns",
            "zero_baseline": true
          },
          "y": {
            "domain": [
              "AJ Barner",
              "Tucker Kraft",
              "Trey McBride",
              "Quentin Johnston",
              "Jauan Jennings",
              "Jake Ferguson",
              "Colby Parkinson",
              "Tee Higgins",
              "Dallas Goedert",
              "Davante Adams"
            ],
            "label": "Player",
            "scale": "categorical",
            "unit": "player"
          }
        },
        "claim_metrics": {
          "players_shown": 10,
          "season": 2025
        },
        "denominator": 10,
        "file": "figures/2025-overperformers.png",
        "id": "latest-overperformers",
        "legend": [
          {
            "encoding": "dark green dot",
            "label": "Expected receiving TDs"
          },
          {
            "encoding": "orange dot",
            "label": "Actual receiving TDs"
          }
        ],
        "population": "Ten WRs/TEs with at least 40 targets and the largest positive receiving-TD minus expected-TD gaps in 2025",
        "sha256": "5d64a4c59318f3f55c2c928ffb1e217bbc6cc3467e524eb4f7bb8050a2528a4d",
        "subtitle": "Historical example, not a current-season recommendation",
        "time_frame": "2025 regular season",
        "title": "2025 WRs/TEs with 40+ targets: actual versus expected receiving TDs"
      }
    ],
    "schema_version": "2.0"
  },
  "forecast": {
    "expected_tds_mae": 2.3398484955208003,
    "expected_tds_rmse": 3.0032837119773292,
    "last_year_actual_mae": 2.650231124807396,
    "last_year_actual_rmse": 3.431926599579287,
    "mae_improvement_pct": 11.711530605058181
  },
  "limitations": [
    "The model observes season-level opportunity, not route-level or red-zone context.",
    "Next-season evaluation conditions on returning to at least 40 targets, creating survivor bias.",
    "Expected touchdowns are a baseline, not a player-specific projection or causal estimate.",
    "The public source snapshot ends with the 2025 season; this study tests an evergreen claim rather than ranking current players."
  ],
  "model": {
    "baseline_rationale": "Compare a naive persistence forecast (last season's actual touchdowns) with an opportunity-only expected-touchdown baseline on the same players and outcomes; neither is presented as a full fantasy projection.",
    "features": [
      "targets",
      "receptions",
      "receiving_yards",
      "receiving_air_yards",
      "receiving_first_downs"
    ],
    "minimum_targets": 40,
    "ridge_penalty": 5.0,
    "type": "ridge-regularized linear expected-touchdown model"
  },
  "next_season_pairs": 649,
  "player_seasons": 1606,
  "population": "WR/TE regular-season player-seasons with at least 40 targets",
  "regression": {
    "quintiles": [
      {
        "current_tds": 2.8615384615384616,
        "expected_tds": 5.5196580773205195,
        "n": 130,
        "next_tds": 4.384615384615385,
        "over_expected": -2.658119615782058,
        "regression_quintile": "Most under"
      },
      {
        "current_tds": 3.3615384615384616,
        "expected_tds": 4.556254923294554,
        "n": 130,
        "next_tds": 4.423076923076923,
        "over_expected": -1.194716461756092,
        "regression_quintile": "Under"
      },
      {
        "current_tds": 4.348837209302325,
        "expected_tds": 4.450702236782635,
        "n": 129,
        "next_tds": 4.488372093023256,
        "over_expected": -0.10186502748030928,
        "regression_quintile": "Near expected"
      },
      {
        "current_tds": 5.484615384615385,
        "expected_tds": 4.576033884627826,
        "n": 130,
        "next_tds": 4.630769230769231,
        "over_expected": 0.9085814999875592,
        "regression_quintile": "Over"
      },
      {
        "current_tds": 8.307692307692308,
        "expected_tds": 5.042015783312676,
        "n": 130,
        "next_tds": 5.269230769230769,
        "over_expected": 3.2656765243796317,
        "regression_quintile": "Most over"
      }
    ],
    "residual_vs_next_change_correlation": -0.49996439045065416
  },
  "seasons": [
    2014,
    2025
  ],
  "study": "Touchdown Regression v1",
  "uncertainty": {
    "mae_delta_95_ci": [
      0.17545618732559884,
      0.45017340284282026
    ],
    "mae_delta_tds": 0.3103826292865959,
    "probability_expected_better": 1.0,
    "samples": 5000,
    "seed": 4444
  },
  "walk_forward_predictions": 1078,
  "walk_forward_test_seasons": [
    2018,
    2019,
    2020,
    2021,
    2022,
    2023,
    2024,
    2025
  ]
}