{
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "td-forecast-improvement",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json",
        "data/next-season-pairs.csv"
      ],
      "kind": "numeric",
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/player_stats/player_stats.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/stats_player/stats_player_reg_2025.csv"
      ],
      "status": "supported",
      "text": "Expected touchdowns reduced next-season MAE by 11.7%."
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "td-regression-tail",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json",
        "data/regression-quintiles.csv"
      ],
      "kind": "numeric",
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/player_stats/player_stats.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/stats_player/stats_player_reg_2025.csv"
      ],
      "status": "supported",
      "text": "The highest touchdown-over-expected group declined the following season."
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "td-scope-limit",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json",
        "data/attrition-by-season.csv"
      ],
      "kind": "limitation",
      "source_urls": [],
      "status": "qualified",
      "text": "The estimate is conditional on players retaining the next-season target threshold."
    }
  ],
  "run_id": "2026-08-31T230428Z-touchdown-regression-gh33448995473",
  "series_id": "touchdown-regression"
}