{
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/2025-overperformers.csv",
    "data/attrition-by-season.csv",
    "data/next-season-pairs.csv",
    "data/regression-quintiles.csv",
    "data/walk-forward-predictions.csv",
    "figure-specs.json",
    "figures/2025-overperformers.png",
    "figures/forecast-error.png",
    "figures/regression-quintiles.png",
    "model-parameters.json",
    "provenance.json",
    "research-memo.json"
  ],
  "created_at": "2026-08-31T23:04:54.841792+00:00",
  "decision": "pass",
  "findings": [
    {
      "check": "reproducibility",
      "evidence": "article.md 'Reproducibility and provenance' states the run manifest records 'the code path, seed, model coefficients, walk-forward predictions, bootstrap outputs', but the artifact inventory contains no code file or run manifest; only model-parameters.json, provenance.json, and research-memo.json are present.",
      "recommendation": "Add the analysis code (or its recorded path/hash) and the run manifest to the artifact inventory so the reproducibility claim is fully auditable, or soften the article's provenance statement to match what is actually distributed.",
      "severity": "warning"
    },
    {
      "check": "design_drift",
      "evidence": "The 2025-overperformers figure is included in the bundle but is not among the locked memo's required outputs; it is labeled 'Historical example, not a current-season recommendation', which mitigates misuse risk.",
      "recommendation": "Confirm the editorial pipeline treats this figure as illustrative only and does not promote it as a current-season ranking.",
      "severity": "warning"
    }
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "role": "code_methods_reviewer",
  "summary": "Implementation matches the locked registration: expanding-window ridge model with walk-forward test seasons 2018-2025 trained only on earlier seasons, 40-target threshold, same-player paired comparison of two simple baselines, and all six required outputs present (walk-forward predictions, next-season pairs, attrition by season, bootstrap interval, quintile chart, forecast-error chart). Attrition reconciles exactly (649 + 301 + 128 = 1078 walk-forward predictions; retention 649/950 = 0.6832). Quintile counts sum to 649. Figure SHA-256 hashes match the artifact inventory. Bootstrap seed (4444) and sample count (5000) are recorded. No temporal leakage is evident: features are same-season opportunity signals, and next-season evaluation uses the following season's actuals only as outcomes. Fair-baseline comparison is maintained (identical population and outcome for both forecasts). Survivor bias, non-causal framing, and snapshot staleness are disclosed as limitations, consistent with the registered risks."
}