{
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/2025-overperformers.csv",
    "data/attrition-by-season.csv",
    "data/next-season-pairs.csv",
    "data/regression-quintiles.csv",
    "data/walk-forward-predictions.csv",
    "figure-specs.json",
    "figures/2025-overperformers.png",
    "figures/forecast-error.png",
    "figures/regression-quintiles.png",
    "model-parameters.json",
    "provenance.json",
    "research-memo.json"
  ],
  "created_at": "2026-08-31T23:04:36.762241+00:00",
  "decision": "pass",
  "findings": [
    {
      "check": "attrition",
      "evidence": "649 evaluable pairs vs 301 not evaluable at the 40-target threshold and 128 pending next-season data; retention rate 0.68 among completed seasons.",
      "recommendation": "None; attrition is disclosed and reconciled.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "survivor_bias",
      "evidence": "Next-season evaluation conditions on returning to at least 40 targets, creating survivor bias; the article acknowledges this and notes the net direction of bias in the forecast comparison is uncertain.",
      "recommendation": "Disclosed scope limitation; acceptable as a warning, not a blocker.",
      "severity": "warning"
    },
    {
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "Bootstrap interval (0.18-0.45 TD) is correctly characterized as within-sample resampling, not independent replication; probability_expected_better = 1.0 should not be read as certainty outside this sample.",
      "recommendation": "The article already frames this appropriately; no change required.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "claim_separation",
      "evidence": "The 2025 overperformers figure is labeled 'Historical example, not a current-season recommendation,' and the article explicitly disclaims individual projection use and causal interpretation.",
      "recommendation": "None; predictive and causal claims are properly separated.",
      "severity": "note"
    }
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "role": "researcher",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked preregistration. The design (nflverse aggregation, 40-target threshold, expanding-window ridge model, walk-forward test seasons 2018-2025), estimand (difference in next-season forecast error between prior-year actual and expected receiving TDs), population (WR/TE regular-season player-seasons with at least 40 targets), and hypothesis (regression toward the opportunity baseline) are all faithfully implemented. All required outputs are present: walk-forward predictions (1,078), next-season pairs (649), attrition by season, bootstrap interval (0.18-0.45 TD, 5,000 resamples), quintile chart, and forecast-error chart. Figure contracts match the analysis metrics and artifact SHAs are consistent. The article correctly reports the 11.7% MAE improvement, 8.3-to-5.3 quintile regression, and 649-pair denominator, and clearly separates predictive claims from causal interpretation (explicitly labeled a benchmark, not a causal estimate or projection)."
}