{
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article.md",
    "figure_contract",
    "provenance.json",
    "locked_research_memo",
    "artifact_inventory",
    "mechanical_checks"
  ],
  "created_at": "2026-08-31T23:04:42.016030+00:00",
  "decision": "pass",
  "findings": [
    {
      "check": "selection_effects",
      "evidence": "The next-season evaluation conditions on returning to 40+ targets (301 of 1,078 pairs excluded), which is survivor bias.",
      "recommendation": "The article already discloses this in 'Where this can break' and correctly frames the result as applying to volume survivors; no change required, but the warning must remain visible.",
      "severity": "warning"
    },
    {
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "The bootstrap reports probability_expected_better = 1.0, which is a within-sample resampling result, not an independent replication; the article correctly notes this.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the article's caveat that the 5,000 resamples quantify uncertainty inside one evaluation sample and are not independent replications.",
      "severity": "warning"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline_fairness",
      "evidence": "The comparison is between two deliberately naive baselines (persistence vs opportunity-only expected TDs); neither is a full projection, and the article says so.",
      "recommendation": "No change required; the framing as a 'modest benchmark improvement' is appropriate and should be retained.",
      "severity": "warning"
    },
    {
      "check": "calibration",
      "evidence": "The 2025 overperformers figure is labeled 'Historical example, not a current-season recommendation' and the article avoids current-player recommendations.",
      "recommendation": "None; framing is consistent with the locked estimand.",
      "severity": "note"
    }
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "role": "statistician",
  "summary": "The evidence supports the article's claims. Attrition reconciles exactly (649 evaluable + 301 below threshold + 128 pending = 1,078 walk-forward predictions), the walk-forward design trains only on earlier seasons for each test season 2018-2025, and all headline numbers (2.65 vs 2.34 MAE, 11.7% improvement, 8.3-to-5.3 quintile decline, 0.31 TD paired delta with 95% CI 0.18-0.45) match the analysis JSON and figure contracts. Survivor conditioning, non-causal scope, and missing route/red-zone covariates are disclosed as limitations and the article does not overclaim beyond them."
}