{
  "cohort_years": [
    2010,
    2023
  ],
  "data_through": 2025,
  "draft_pick_trend": {
    "log_odds_coefficient": -0.7036446169745623,
    "odds_ratio": 0.4947787346898559,
    "odds_ratio_95_ci": [
      0.41972016359249675,
      0.5832600326034733
    ],
    "standard_error": 0.08394002548579178,
    "unit": "32 picks later"
  },
  "drafted_receivers": 445,
  "figure_artifacts": [
    "figures/rookie-wr-hit-rate-by-round.png",
    "figures/rookie-wr-threshold-ladder.png"
  ],
  "figure_contract": {
    "figures": [
      {
        "alt_text": "Bar chart of 445 drafted wide receivers. Round 1 has a 65.5% top-36 PPR season rate by Year 3; Day 3 has a 6.2% rate.",
        "axes": {
          "x": {
            "domain": [
              "1",
              "2",
              "3",
              "4",
              "5",
              "6",
              "7"
            ],
            "label": "NFL draft round",
            "scale": "categorical",
            "unit": "draft round"
          },
          "y": {
            "domain": [
              0.0,
              85.0
            ],
            "label": "Share with a top-36 PPR season by Year 3 (%)",
            "scale": "linear",
            "unit": "percent of drafted receivers",
            "zero_baseline": true
          }
        },
        "claim_metrics": {
          "primary_hit_definition": "At least one top-36 regular-season PPR finish among NFL wide receivers from the rookie season through Year 3",
          "rounds": [
            {
              "ci_high": 0.7663746663584595,
              "ci_low": 0.5225365801066263,
              "n": 55,
              "rate": 0.6545454545454545,
              "round": 1
            },
            {
              "ci_high": 0.5077712948512505,
              "ci_low": 0.28048871056929325,
              "n": 67,
              "rate": 0.3880597014925373,
              "round": 2
            },
            {
              "ci_high": 0.36816509174383727,
              "ci_low": 0.16014791974174092,
              "n": 64,
              "rate": 0.25,
              "round": 3
            },
            {
              "ci_high": 0.21204880283739927,
              "ci_low": 0.05487478965589834,
              "n": 63,
              "rate": 0.1111111111111111,
              "round": 4
            },
            {
              "ci_high": 0.24017274846822606,
              "ci_low": 0.06304130417480197,
              "n": 55,
              "rate": 0.12727272727272726,
              "round": 5
            },
            {
              "ci_high": 0.09211664843284882,
              "ci_low": 0.00734353502360055,
              "n": 75,
              "rate": 0.02666666666666667,
              "round": 6
            },
            {
              "ci_high": 0.05500446725160935,
              "ci_low": 0.0,
              "n": 66,
              "rate": 0.0,
              "round": 7
            }
          ]
        },
        "denominator": 445,
        "file": "figures/rookie-wr-hit-rate-by-round.png",
        "id": "hit-rate-by-round",
        "legend": [
          {
            "encoding": "error bar",
            "label": "95% Wilson confidence interval"
          }
        ],
        "population": "All 445 wide receivers selected in NFL Draft Rounds 1\u20137 from 2010\u20132023",
        "sha256": "9e74e7d506e5a821c26d7fe374b2844356229395b8e0d441f33c04921ee41212",
        "time_frame": "At least one regular-season PPR finish from the rookie year through Year 3",
        "title": "Drafted WRs, 2010\u20132023 classes (n=445)\nTop-36 PPR season rate by Year 3 falls as NFL Draft rounds get later"
      },
      {
        "alt_text": "Grouped bars compare top-36, top-24, and top-12 PPR season rates by Year 3 for Round 1, Rounds 2\u20133, and Rounds 4\u20137 drafted wide receivers.",
        "axes": {
          "x": {
            "domain": [
              "Round 1",
              "Round 2",
              "Round 3",
              "Rounds 4\u20137"
            ],
            "label": "NFL draft-capital tier",
            "scale": "categorical",
            "unit": "draft-capital tier"
          },
          "y": {
            "domain": [
              0.0,
              80.0
            ],
            "label": "Share with a qualifying PPR season by Year 3 (%)",
            "scale": "linear",
            "unit": "percent of drafted receivers",
            "zero_baseline": true
          }
        },
        "claim_metrics": {
          "tiers": [
            {
              "capital_tier": "Round 1",
              "top_12_rate": 0.32727272727272727,
              "top_24_rate": 0.5454545454545454,
              "top_36_rate": 0.6545454545454545
            },
            {
              "capital_tier": "Round 2",
              "top_12_rate": 0.13432835820895522,
              "top_24_rate": 0.2537313432835821,
              "top_36_rate": 0.3880597014925373
            },
            {
              "capital_tier": "Round 3",
              "top_12_rate": 0.125,
              "top_24_rate": 0.1875,
              "top_36_rate": 0.25
            },
            {
              "capital_tier": "Rounds 4\u20137",
              "top_12_rate": 0.015444015444015444,
              "top_24_rate": 0.03088803088803089,
              "top_36_rate": 0.06177606177606178
            }
          ]
        },
        "denominator": 445,
        "file": "figures/rookie-wr-threshold-ladder.png",
        "id": "threshold-ladder",
        "legend": [
          {
            "encoding": "lime bar",
            "label": "Top-36 PPR"
          },
          {
            "encoding": "orange bar",
            "label": "Top-24 PPR"
          },
          {
            "encoding": "dark green bar",
            "label": "Top-12 PPR"
          }
        ],
        "population": "All 445 wide receivers selected in NFL Draft Rounds 1\u20137 from 2010\u20132023",
        "sha256": "32ad1cd2e89e18e00a2ba814555fbe50a5a12ccf57c35875911919e9eaee3a5e",
        "time_frame": "At least one regular-season PPR finish from the rookie year through Year 3",
        "title": "Drafted WRs, 2010\u20132023 classes (n=445)\nTop-36, top-24, and top-12 PPR season rates by Year 3 and draft-capital tier"
      }
    ],
    "schema_version": "2.0"
  },
  "headline": {
    "day_3_ci": [
      0.03837926404986469,
      0.09798271213655327
    ],
    "day_3_n": 259,
    "day_3_top_36_rate": 0.06177606177606178,
    "round_1_ci": [
      0.5225365801066263,
      0.7663746663584595
    ],
    "round_1_n": 55,
    "round_1_top_36_rate": 0.6545454545454545
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Top-36 PPR is a fantasy-usefulness threshold, not a universal definition of NFL success.",
    "The study evaluates drafted receivers only; undrafted free agents are outside the estimand.",
    "Injuries, depth-chart opportunity, quarterback play, and team context are part of the observed outcome rather than controlled causes.",
    "Round-level estimates average across players and should inform priors, not replace prospect-specific evidence.",
    "The source snapshot ends with the 2025 season, so 2024 and later draft classes do not yet have complete three-year windows."
  ],
  "outcome_window": "rookie season through Year 3",
  "player_season_windows": 1335,
  "population": "NFL-drafted wide receivers in the 2010\u20132023 draft classes",
  "primary_hit_definition": "At least one top-36 regular-season PPR finish among NFL wide receivers from the rookie season through Year 3",
  "rounds": [
    {
      "n": 55,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 21,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.38181818181818183,
      "round": 1,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.32727272727272727,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.5454545454545454,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.7663746663584595,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.5225365801066263,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 36,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.6545454545454545
    },
    {
      "n": 67,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 12,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.1791044776119403,
      "round": 2,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.13432835820895522,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.2537313432835821,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.5077712948512505,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.28048871056929325,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 26,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.3880597014925373
    },
    {
      "n": 64,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 4,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.0625,
      "round": 3,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.125,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.1875,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.36816509174383727,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.16014791974174092,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 16,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.25
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 2,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.031746031746031744,
      "round": 4,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.015873015873015872,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.031746031746031744,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.21204880283739927,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.05487478965589834,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 7,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.1111111111111111
    },
    {
      "n": 55,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 2,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.03636363636363636,
      "round": 5,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.05454545454545454,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.09090909090909091,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.24017274846822606,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.06304130417480197,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 7,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.12727272727272726
    },
    {
      "n": 75,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 0,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.0,
      "round": 6,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.0,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.013333333333333334,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.09211664843284882,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.00734353502360055,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 2,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.02666666666666667
    },
    {
      "n": 66,
      "rookie_top_36_hits": 0,
      "rookie_top_36_rate": 0.0,
      "round": 7,
      "year_3_top_12_rate": 0.0,
      "year_3_top_24_rate": 0.0,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_high": 0.05500446725160935,
      "year_3_top_36_ci_low": 0.0,
      "year_3_top_36_hits": 0,
      "year_3_top_36_rate": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "secondary_definitions": [
    "Top-36 finish as a rookie",
    "At least one top-24 finish by Year 3",
    "At least one top-12 finish by Year 3"
  ],
  "study": "Rookie WR Hit Rates by Draft Round v1",
  "tiers": [
    {
      "capital_tier": "Round 1",
      "n": 55,
      "top_12_rate": 0.32727272727272727,
      "top_24_rate": 0.5454545454545454,
      "top_36_rate": 0.6545454545454545
    },
    {
      "capital_tier": "Round 2",
      "n": 67,
      "top_12_rate": 0.13432835820895522,
      "top_24_rate": 0.2537313432835821,
      "top_36_rate": 0.3880597014925373
    },
    {
      "capital_tier": "Round 3",
      "n": 64,
      "top_12_rate": 0.125,
      "top_24_rate": 0.1875,
      "top_36_rate": 0.25
    },
    {
      "capital_tier": "Rounds 4\u20137",
      "n": 259,
      "top_12_rate": 0.015444015444015444,
      "top_24_rate": 0.03088803088803089,
      "top_36_rate": 0.06177606177606178
    }
  ]
}