{
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/drafted-wr-outcomes.csv",
    "data/first-three-seasons.csv",
    "data/hit-rates-by-round.csv",
    "data/hit-rates-by-tier.csv",
    "figure-specs.json",
    "figures/rookie-wr-hit-rate-by-round.png",
    "figures/rookie-wr-threshold-ladder.png",
    "provenance.json",
    "research-memo.json"
  ],
  "created_at": "2026-08-31T23:10:33.276400+00:00",
  "decision": "pass",
  "findings": [
    {
      "check": "preregistration_match",
      "evidence": "Analysis population (445 WRs, Rounds 1\u20137, 2010\u20132023), primary hit definition, outcome window (rookie season through Year 3), and pick-level logistic trend all match the locked research memo. No hypothesis, estimand, or output substitution detected.",
      "recommendation": "None.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "figure_contract_internal_consistency",
      "evidence": "The threshold-ladder figure's alt_text describes tiers as 'Round 1, Rounds 2\u20133, and Rounds 4\u20137' while the axes domain and claim_metrics report four tiers: 'Round 1', 'Round 2', 'Round 3', 'Rounds 4\u20137'. The alt text does not match the actual grouping shown in the figure.",
      "recommendation": "Correct the alt_text for figures/rookie-wr-threshold-ladder.png to describe the four displayed tiers (Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Rounds 4\u20137) for accessibility accuracy.",
      "severity": "warning"
    },
    {
      "check": "predictive_causal_separation",
      "evidence": "The article explicitly labels the odds ratio as such, states draft capital is 'useful for prediction and dangerous for causal storytelling,' and the limitations section discloses that injuries, QB play, and depth-chart opportunity are embedded in the outcome rather than controlled causes.",
      "recommendation": "None.",
      "severity": "note"
    },
    {
      "check": "cohort_window_completeness",
      "evidence": "Data through 2025 supports a complete three-year window for the 2023 draft class; the article and limitations correctly state that 2024+ classes are excluded. Provenance records three source files with hashes, licenses, and retrieval dates.",
      "recommendation": "None.",
      "severity": "note"
    }
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "role": "researcher",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked preregistration. The estimand (round-specific cumulative probability of at least one top-36 PPR finish through Year 3 among 2010\u20132023 drafted WRs), the frozen primary outcome, the Wilson intervals, the pick-level odds trend (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.42\u20130.58 per 32 picks), and the top-24/top-12 sensitivity table all appear in the analysis and article with consistent numbers. All six required outputs from the memo are present in the artifact inventory (cohort CSV, three-season panel, round hit rates, sensitivity table, odds trend, two charts with matching SHA-256 hashes). The article correctly frames draft capital as predictive, not causal, and the limitations section mirrors the preregistered risks. Mechanical checks all pass."
}