{
  "series_id": "weather-wind-offense",
  "run_id": "2026-09-02T214019Z-weather-wind-offense-gh33686269705",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "wind-sample",
      "text": "The study analyzed 1,323 weather-complete outdoor/open NFL regular-season games from 2018 through 2025.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/coverage.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2018.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2019.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2020.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2021.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2022.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "wind-dropback",
      "text": "At the registered 15 mph threshold, neutral early-down dropback rate was 52.1% versus 54.0% below 10 mph, a -1.8 pts difference.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#primary_effects",
        "data/threshold-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2018.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2019.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2020.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2021.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2022.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "wind-completion",
      "text": "Completion rate was 58.0% at 15+ mph versus 60.3% below 10 mph, with a 95% difference interval from -3.4 pts to -1.1 pts.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#primary_effects",
        "data/threshold-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2018.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2019.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2020.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2021.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2022.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "wind-efficiency",
      "text": "Pass EPA per dropback was -0.011 at 15+ mph versus 0.056 below 10 mph, a -0.067 change with a 95% interval from -0.104 to -0.031.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#primary_effects",
        "data/threshold-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2018.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2019.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2020.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2021.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2022.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "wind-scoring",
      "text": "Games at 15+ mph averaged 42.3 combined points versus 46.1 below 10 mph, a -3.8 points change with a 95% interval from -6.2 points to -1.3 points.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#primary_effects",
        "data/threshold-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2018.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2019.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2020.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2021.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2022.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "wind-adot-null",
      "text": "In an unregistered exploratory secondary check, average target depth did not show a supported difference at the 15 mph threshold.",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "data/threshold-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2018.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2019.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2020.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2021.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2022.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "wind-not-forecast",
      "text": "These are retrospective associations from observed game conditions; they do not establish a causal effect or prove that a pregame forecast improves projections.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "data/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2018.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2019.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2020.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2021.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2022.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "extreme-wind-underpowered",
      "text": "Only 31 games reached 20+ mph, so the extreme-wind estimate is underpowered and should not be used as a standalone threshold.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/results.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2018.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2019.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2020.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2021.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2022.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}