{
  "series_id": "weather-wind-offense",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "question": "At what reported wind speeds do NFL passing volume, completion rate, efficiency, and scoring change enough to matter for fantasy football?",
  "hypothesis": "Outdoor NFL games reported at 15 mph or higher have lower neutral passing volume, completion rate, passing efficiency, and combined scoring than games below 10 mph.",
  "estimand": "Observed association between reported game wind and offense; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games at venues recorded as outdoors or open, with reported wind and temperature",
  "outcomes": [
    "neutral_dropback_rate",
    "completion_rate",
    "pass_epa_per_dropback",
    "total_points"
  ],
  "features": [
    "reported wind mph",
    "temperature",
    "temperature-squared",
    "week",
    "season-fixed-effects"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "This historical association study uses leave-one-season-out sensitivity across 2018\u20132025; it makes no forecast claim.",
  "baselines": [
    "Games below 10 mph compared with games at or above the locked 15 mph threshold",
    "Temperature-, week-, and season-adjusted continuous effect per 5 mph"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "neutral_dropback_rate",
    "completion_rate",
    "pass_epa_per_dropback",
    "total_points"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000 game-level bootstrap draws and HC3 robust OLS intervals",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Threshold estimates at 10 mph",
    "Threshold estimates at 20 mph",
    "continuous piecewise-linear spline at 10/15/20 mph",
    "Leave-one-season-out direction stability"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "fewer than 1000 complete games",
    "fewer than 100 games at or above 15 mph",
    "overall reported-weather coverage below 85%",
    "fewer than 98% of weather-complete games join to play-by-play",
    "a primary direction flips in a leave-one-season-out analysis",
    "two executions produce different result hashes"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-02T17:28:48.376419+00:00"
}