{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis and article match the locked preregistration. The registered 15 mph vs below-10 mph threshold comparison, the four preregistered outcomes (neutral dropback rate, completion rate, pass EPA per dropback, combined points), the temperature/week/season-adjusted continuous estimates, the registered 10/20 mph and spline sensitivities, leave-one-season-out stability, and the 4,000-draw bootstrap plus HC3 intervals are all present and consistent across the analysis, article, claim ledger, and publication assets. All withhold_if gates pass (1,323 complete games, 153 games at 15+ mph, 88.97% weather coverage, deterministic result hash). The estimand is consistently framed as a retrospective observed-condition association, and the article explicitly separates it from causal and pregame-forecast claims. The 20+ mph sparsity (31 games) and 2022\u20132023 weather-coverage gaps are disclosed scope limitations, not blockers. The unregistered target-depth check is correctly labeled exploratory and not presented as a registered finding.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "registration_match",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#primary_effects, locked_registration",
      "recommendation": "Primary effects, thresholds, controls, and uncertainty specification match the locked registration exactly; no deviations found."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "predictive_causal_separation",
      "evidence": "article 'Where the evidence stops', analysis.json#estimand, research_audit.leakage_checks",
      "recommendation": "The article and analysis consistently label results as retrospective associations and disclaim causal and forecast value; the separation is maintained throughout."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "scope_limitation",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#data_quality_blockers (season-weather-coverage, extreme-wind-sample)",
      "recommendation": "The 2022\u20132023 weather-coverage gap and the 31-game 20+ mph sample are disclosed in the article, limitations, and data-quality blockers. These limit representativeness and extreme-wind claims but are disclosed scope limitations, not blocking departures."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "artifact_completeness",
      "evidence": "artifact_hashes, publication_assets",
      "recommendation": "All required artifacts (registration, results, threshold/adjusted/spline/bin/coverage/sensitivity data, figure, provenance, claim ledger, reproducibility and gates files) are present with hashes."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "unregistered_check_labeling",
      "evidence": "article 'What does not change', claim_ledger wind-adot-null",
      "recommendation": "The average-target-depth null result is correctly labeled as an unregistered exploratory check and excluded from primary claims."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/threshold-effects.csv",
    "data/adjusted-effects.csv",
    "data/adjusted-spline-effects.csv",
    "data/bin-estimates.csv",
    "data/coverage.csv",
    "data/season-sensitivity.csv",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/gates.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/source-manifest.json",
    "data/evaluation-run.json",
    "figures/wind-offense-by-bin.png",
    "data/wind-offense-by-bin.svg",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-proposal.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json",
    "openrouter-call-ledger.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-02T21:40:46.054746+00:00"
}