{
  "role": "statistician",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The article's numeric claims match the supplied results, the estimand is respected (retrospective association, no forecast or causal claim), missingness reconciles (1487 - 164 = 1323), the preregistered baseline (below 10 mph vs 15+ mph) is used, Holm adjustment covers the four primary outcomes, and the disclosed limitations (20+ mph sparsity, 2022-2023 weather coverage gaps, unregistered aDOT null) remain visible. No leakage, outcome-construction, or withholding-gate failures found.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "claim_verification",
      "evidence": "All headline numbers (54.0%->52.1% dropback, 60.3%->58.0% completion, 0.056->-0.011 EPA, 46.1->42.3 points) and intervals match analysis.json#primary_effects and the claim ledger.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "selection_effects",
      "evidence": "Complete-case analysis excludes 164 games (11% of outdoor schedule), with coverage gaps concentrated in 2022-2023; the article discloses this but representativeness of those seasons is limited.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the 2022-2023 coverage limitation visible; consider a NOAA-backed reanalysis before any follow-up."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "Only 31 games at 20+ mph; the article correctly keeps the extreme-wind bin out of standalone scope.",
      "recommendation": "Continue to avoid any 20+ mph standalone claim."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "multiplicity",
      "evidence": "Holm-adjusted p-values reported across the four primary outcomes; the aDOT check is labeled unregistered exploratory and reported as unsupported.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "baseline_fairness",
      "evidence": "Threshold comparison is unadjusted; adjusted continuous estimates (temperature, week, season FE) are reported separately and directionally consistent.",
      "recommendation": "The article already labels the table as unadjusted differences; no change needed."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "data/threshold-effects.csv",
    "data/adjusted-effects.csv",
    "data/coverage.csv",
    "data/gates.json",
    "figures/wind-offense-by-bin.png",
    "provenance.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-02T21:40:53.319529+00:00"
}