{
  "series_id": "weather-data-architecture",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T072607Z-weather-data-architecture-gh33727954553",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-time-boundary",
      "text": "Observed game conditions are retained for historical research and are explicitly ineligible as pregame projection inputs.",
      "kind": "source",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#projection_boundary",
        "data/observed/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-observed-coverage",
      "text": "The observed-weather layer contains 1,258 NFL games through 2024 with 98.1% released-season usable coverage.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#observed_weather",
        "data/observed/coverage.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-cutoffs",
      "text": "Archived HRRR forecasts are frozen at registered 24-hour and 6-hour pregame cutoffs, and every retained record proves source availability before its cutoff.",
      "kind": "source",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#forecast_archive",
        "data/forecast/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-progress",
      "text": "At this article run, 184 of 2,516 registered archived forecast requests were complete.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#forecast_archive",
        "data/forecast/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-model-withheld",
      "text": "Weather does not affect the official rankings while forecast-readiness or held-out performance gates remain incomplete.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#projection_boundary",
        "data/forecast/evaluation-run.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-source-lag",
      "text": "The football inputs extend through the 2025 season, while the current NOAA observed-weather layer extends through 2024 and is retried on refresh.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#source_lag",
        "data/observed/results.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}