{
  "series_id": "weather-data-architecture",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "question": "How does Fourth Down Labs separate observed NFL weather research from cutoff-safe forecasts before weather can affect fantasy-football projections?",
  "hypothesis": "Weather can enter a fantasy projection without temporal leakage only when observed postgame conditions and timestamped pregame forecasts remain separate evidence layers.",
  "estimand": "A descriptive audit of the weather evidence path and its prediction-time boundary, not an estimate that weather improves fantasy projections.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season weather records and forecast requests from 2018 onward",
  "outcomes": [
    "observed-weather research coverage",
    "cutoff-safe archived forecast coverage",
    "weather challenger release status"
  ],
  "features": [
    "source availability timestamp",
    "forecast cutoff",
    "stadium coordinate",
    "roof-state boundary",
    "source SHA-256"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "Observed conditions are available only after games; prediction inputs use registered [24, 6] hour forecast cutoffs.",
  "baselines": [
    "Observed postgame weather is research-only",
    "The official projection remains unchanged until a weather challenger passes"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "coverage",
    "cutoff integrity",
    "reproducibility",
    "release gates"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "This explainer reports audited system state rather than a new effect estimate; statistical uncertainty remains attached to each underlying weather study.",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Primary and secondary station agreement",
    "Two independent forecast-scorecard executions"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "observed and forecast records cross the prediction-time boundary",
    "a cited source lacks approved rights or an immutable hash",
    "the article implies that the withheld weather challenger is in production"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T07:26:08.520516+00:00"
}