{
  "role": "code_methods_reviewer",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The explainer matches the locked registration: it is a descriptive audit of the weather evidence architecture, makes no effect or forecast-accuracy claim, keeps observed postgame weather prediction-ineligible, restricts projection-eligible evidence to registered 24h/6h cutoff-safe forecast snapshots, and withholds the weather challenger from official projections. Claim ledger entries are supported by cited evidence paths, missingness reconciles (184 analyzed + 2,332 excluded = 2,516 input rows), reproducibility and station-agreement sensitivities are recorded, and the source lag (observations through 2024 vs. football inputs through 2025) is disclosed rather than extrapolated.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "missingness",
      "evidence": "analysis.research_audit.missingness: input_rows 2516, analyzed_rows 184, excluded_rows 2332, all exclusions attributed to forecast_not_yet_complete",
      "recommendation": "The 7.3% forecast completion rate is low but is explicitly disclosed as a limitation and correctly triggers withholding of any forecast-accuracy claim; no action required beyond continued archive completion before any challenger evaluation."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "temporal_validation",
      "evidence": "analysis.observed_weather.prediction_eligible: false; analysis.projection_boundary.observations: 'historical research only'; article blocks consistently mark observed weather as permanently prediction-ineligible",
      "recommendation": "The observed-versus-forecast boundary is enforced consistently across the analysis, article, and claim ledger; the permanent ineligibility of postgame observations is the correct leakage control."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "irreproducibility",
      "evidence": "analysis.research_audit.sensitivity_checks: 'Two executions produced the same archived-forecast scorecard hash'; data/forecast/reproducibility.json and data/observed/reproducibility.json present in artifact_hashes",
      "recommendation": "Deterministic reproducibility is evidenced for both layers; the explainer appropriately defers statistical uncertainty to underlying studies rather than asserting a new estimate."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/forecast/evaluation-run.json",
    "data/forecast/registration.json",
    "data/forecast/reproducibility.json",
    "data/forecast/scorecard.json",
    "data/observed/coverage.csv",
    "data/observed/evaluation-run.json",
    "data/observed/gates.json",
    "data/observed/registration.json",
    "data/observed/reproducibility.json",
    "data/observed/results.json",
    "data/observed/source-manifest.json",
    "data/observed/station-agreement.json",
    "data/observed/study-decisions.json",
    "figures/weather-evidence-architecture.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-proposal.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T07:27:31.322864+00:00"
}