{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis and article match the locked registration. The explainer reports a descriptive audit of the weather evidence architecture, keeps observed postgame conditions research-only and prediction-ineligible, restricts projection eligibility to cutoff-safe timestamped forecasts at the registered 24h/6h cutoffs, and correctly states the challenger is withheld and does not affect official rankings. All required artifacts (registration, scorecard, coverage, reproducibility, station agreement, provenance, figures, tables) are present with hashes, and mechanical checks pass. Predictive claims are properly separated from causal/historical claims, and the article makes no forecast-accuracy or projection-improvement claim.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "claim-evidence alignment",
      "evidence": "All six claim-ledger entries are marked supported and map to analysis.json fields and hashed artifact paths (e.g., weather-observed-coverage -> analysis.json#observed_weather, data/observed/coverage.csv).",
      "recommendation": "None; claim-to-evidence mapping is complete."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "temporal boundary enforcement",
      "evidence": "observed_weather.prediction_eligible is false, forecast_archive.cutoff_integrity is true, and the article states postgame observations are permanently prediction-ineligible while only timestamped pregame forecasts may reach the challenger gate.",
      "recommendation": "None; the registered withhold_if condition (crossing the prediction-time boundary) is not triggered."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "withheld challenger disclosure",
      "evidence": "forecast_archive.status is withheld (184 of 2,516 requests complete) and the article explicitly states weather does not affect official rankings until all promotion gates pass; the withhold_if condition implying production use is not triggered.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "source lag",
      "evidence": "Observed weather extends through 2024 while football inputs extend through 2025 (analysis.json#source_lag); the article discloses this lag and states weather-dependent studies stop at the latest available season.",
      "recommendation": "This is a disclosed scope limitation, not a blocker; ensure the lag remains visible in future refreshes until the 2025 observed layer completes."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "uncertainty and causal-claim separation",
      "evidence": "The article and registration both state the explainer reports audited system state rather than a new effect estimate, and historical correlations are described as research findings, not predictive claims.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "artifact completeness",
      "evidence": "All artifact hashes listed in artifact_hashes correspond to referenced evidence paths in the claim ledger and provenance; provenance records show approved rights for NOAA (public domain) and nflverse (CC BY 4.0).",
      "recommendation": "None."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/forecast/registration.json",
    "data/forecast/scorecard.json",
    "data/forecast/evaluation-run.json",
    "data/forecast/reproducibility.json",
    "data/observed/coverage.csv",
    "data/observed/registration.json",
    "data/observed/results.json",
    "data/observed/station-agreement.json",
    "data/observed/gates.json",
    "data/observed/reproducibility.json",
    "data/observed/source-manifest.json",
    "data/observed/study-decisions.json",
    "data/observed/evaluation-run.json",
    "figures/weather-evidence-architecture.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-proposal.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json",
    "openrouter-call-ledger.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T07:27:02.723040+00:00"
}