{
  "role": "statistician",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The explainer matches the locked descriptive estimand, discloses the withheld challenger and the 184/2,516 forecast coverage, reconciles row counts (184 + 2,332 = 2,516), and makes no effect or accuracy claim. Temporal boundary, cutoff integrity, and reproducibility checks are reported as passed, and the article does not overclaim beyond them.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "attrition reconciliation",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#research_audit.missingness",
      "recommendation": "The 7.3% forecast-archive completion rate is disclosed, but the article could state why 2,332 requests are incomplete (e.g., archive backfill still in progress) so readers can judge whether the completed subset is representative of the registered population."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "historical scope",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#source_lag",
      "recommendation": "The observed-weather layer ends at 2024 while football inputs run through 2025; the article discloses this lag, but the 98.1% coverage claim should be read as applying only to released seasons through 2024, not the full 2025 scope."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "article.limitations",
      "recommendation": "The explainer correctly defers statistical uncertainty to underlying studies; ensure any linked weather-effect study carries its own uncertainty contract before readers treat the historical correlations as quantified effects."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/forecast/evaluation-run.json",
    "data/forecast/registration.json",
    "data/forecast/scorecard.json",
    "data/observed/coverage.csv",
    "data/observed/results.json",
    "provenance.json",
    "research-registration.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T07:27:23.369247+00:00"
}