{
  "series_id": "weather-kickers-roof",
  "version": "1.2.0",
  "question": "After accounting for kick distance and game environment, how much does a dome or closed roof change NFL kicker attempts, accuracy, and fantasy scoring compared with outdoor or open-roof games?",
  "hypothesis": "NFL games played in a dome or under a closed roof have more field-goal attempts, better field-goal accuracy, and more combined kicker fantasy points than outdoor or open-roof games.",
  "estimand": "Observed game-level association for fixed/retractable roof recorded closed or dome vs outdoor/open; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games from 2018 through the latest usable source season",
  "outcomes": [
    "field_goal_attempts",
    "field_goal_accuracy",
    "kicker_fantasy_points"
  ],
  "features": [
    "registered weather or roof contrast",
    "week and season fixed effects",
    "week and season fixed effects; average field-goal distance"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "This is a retrospective completed-season association study. Observed conditions are never eligible as pregame projection inputs.",
  "baselines": [
    "fixed/retractable roof recorded closed or dome vs outdoor/open",
    "Adjusted and unadjusted group comparisons"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "Combined field-goal attempts",
    "Field-goal accuracy",
    "Combined kicker fantasy points"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000 game-level bootstrap draws and HC3 robust OLS intervals",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Week and season fixed effects",
    "Holm correction across the preregistered outcome family",
    "Per-outcome denominator reconciliation",
    "Average field-goal distance control for the accuracy outcome"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "fewer than 1000 comparable games",
    "fewer than 250 condition games",
    "source rights, observation coverage, station agreement, or reproducibility fails"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T07:21:31.730610+00:00"
}