{
  "role": "statistician",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The article's claims match the locked estimand and the supplied results. Denominators reconcile (2,127 comparable games; accuracy excludes 27 undefined games to 633/1,467), uncertainty is reported via both HC3 robust intervals and 4,000-draw bootstraps with Holm correction across the preregistered family, and the article correctly flags the accuracy outcome's bootstrap interval as including zero. The retrospective-association scope and the observed-versus-forecast boundary are disclosed prominently, satisfying the required warning.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "selection effects / confounding",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#estimand; article limitations",
      "recommendation": "The study conditions on observed postgame roof status and cannot adjust for team/franchise composition or richer covariates. The article discloses this and does not overclaim causality, so this remains a disclosed limitation rather than a blocking issue."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "field_goal_accuracy bootstrap_ci_95_lower = -0.004, bootstrap_p_value = 0.123",
      "recommendation": "The accuracy effect is inconsistent across uncertainty methods (HC3 and Holm exclude zero; the bootstrap does not). The article already labels it 'suggestive rather than settled' in the body, methods, and limitations; keep that framing intact in any future edits."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "outcome definition",
      "evidence": "sample.outcome_denominators; article paragraph on denominators",
      "recommendation": "Accuracy is undefined in 27 games with no field-goal attempt; the article reconciles these counts correctly and no change is required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "temporal leakage",
      "evidence": "research_audit.temporal_validation; source_applicability",
      "recommendation": "No leakage: observed postgame roof status is used only for a retrospective association and the article explicitly states it is not a pregame forecast input."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "figures/weather-kickers-roof-effects.png",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T07:58:41.323722+00:00"
}