{
  "series_id": "weather-rain-playcalling",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T083841Z-weather-rain-playcalling-gh33734320850",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-playcalling-sample",
      "text": "The registered sample gate for observed rain vs explicitly rain-free contains 181 condition games and 1,056 control games through the 2024 NFL season.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-playcalling-neutral_dropback_rate",
      "text": "Neutral early-down dropback rate averaged 52.3% in observed rain games and 54.0% in explicitly rain-free games; the adjusted change was -1.6 pts with a 95% interval from -3.1 pts to -0.1 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.097.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-playcalling-average_depth_of_target",
      "text": "Average target depth averaged 7.32 in observed rain games and 7.32 in explicitly rain-free games; the adjusted change was +0.04 yards with a 95% interval from -0.17 yards to +0.25 yards and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 1.000.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-playcalling-completion_rate",
      "text": "Completion rate averaged 58.2% in observed rain games and 60.0% in explicitly rain-free games; the adjusted change was -1.5 pts with a 95% interval from -2.6 pts to -0.5 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.015.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-playcalling-turnover_rate",
      "text": "Turnover rate averaged 2.0% in observed rain games and 2.1% in explicitly rain-free games; the adjusted change was -0.0 pts with a 95% interval from -0.3 pts to +0.2 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 1.000.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-playcalling-scope",
      "text": "The estimates are retrospective associations from observed game conditions; they do not establish causality or prove that a pregame weather forecast improves fantasy projections.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "data/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}