{
  "series_id": "weather-rain-playcalling",
  "version": "1.2.0",
  "question": "In NFL games with observed rain, do teams pass less, throw shorter, complete fewer passes, or turn the ball over more often than in explicitly rain-free games after wind and temperature are controlled?",
  "hypothesis": "NFL teams use fewer neutral early-down dropbacks and produce lower completion rates in games with observed rain than in explicitly rain-free games after wind, temperature, week, and season are controlled.",
  "estimand": "Observed game-level association for observed rain vs explicitly rain-free; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games from 2018 through the latest usable source season",
  "outcomes": [
    "neutral_dropback_rate",
    "average_depth_of_target",
    "completion_rate",
    "turnover_rate"
  ],
  "features": [
    "registered weather or roof contrast",
    "week and season fixed effects; wind speed mps and air temp c"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "This is a retrospective completed-season association study. Observed conditions are never eligible as pregame projection inputs.",
  "baselines": [
    "observed rain vs explicitly rain-free",
    "Adjusted and unadjusted group comparisons"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "Neutral early-down dropback rate",
    "Average target depth",
    "Completion rate",
    "Turnover rate"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000 game-level bootstrap draws and HC3 robust OLS intervals",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Week and season fixed effects",
    "Holm correction across the preregistered outcome family",
    "Per-outcome denominator reconciliation",
    "Wind and temperature controls",
    "Primary and secondary station rain-classification agreement"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "fewer than 750 comparable games",
    "fewer than 100 condition games",
    "source rights, observation coverage, station agreement, or reproducibility fails"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T07:21:31.730610+00:00"
}