{
  "role": "code_methods_reviewer",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The implementation matches the locked registration: the four preregistered outcomes, the observed-rain vs explicitly-rain-free contrast, week/season fixed effects with wind and temperature controls, HC3 robust intervals, 4,000-draw bootstraps with SHA-256-derived deterministic seeds (two executions produced identical result hashes), Holm correction across the outcome family, and per-outcome denominator reconciliation are all present and internally consistent. Sample gates (1,237 comparable, 181 condition) clear the registered floors. Missingness is reconciled (2,127 input rows, 890 excluded, 1,237 analyzed). Temporal handling is correct: observed postgame weather is used only for the retrospective contrast and is explicitly barred from pregame projection use; the 2024 data cutoff reflects the NOAA source lag and satisfies the freshness minimum. Article numbers match the analysis effects exactly, and the neutral-dropback result is correctly downgraded to suggestive after Holm adjustment. No design drift, leakage, or irreproducibility found.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "missingness",
      "evidence": "analysis.research_audit.missingness reports 890 excluded rows collapsed into a single bucket 'outside_registered_contrast_or_incomplete', without separating games excluded for missing weather from games excluded for missing play-by-play outcomes.",
      "recommendation": "In future runs, split the missingness accounting by exclusion reason so attrition mechanisms are auditable."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "For neutral_dropback_rate the bootstrap p-value (0.018) and the model-based p-value (0.032) are both smaller than the Holm-adjusted p (0.097); the article correctly reports the Holm value, but the figure caption references only HC3 intervals while bootstrap intervals are also computed.",
      "recommendation": "Consider noting in the figure caption or methods that bootstrap intervals are additionally reported in the analysis artifact, to avoid implying the HC3 interval is the sole uncertainty quantification."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/study-decisions.json",
    "data/station-agreement.json",
    "data/gates.json",
    "data/coverage.csv",
    "data/source-manifest.json",
    "data/source-receipts/nflverse.json",
    "data/source-receipts/noaa-global-hourly.json",
    "data/source-receipts/wikidata-stadiums.json",
    "figures/weather-rain-playcalling-effects.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "research-proposal.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json",
    "openrouter-call-ledger.json",
    "review-cycles/cycle-1/review-code_methods_reviewer.json",
    "review-cycles/cycle-1/review-statistician.json",
    "review-cycles/cycle-1/review-adversarial_reviewer.json",
    "review-cycles/cycle-1/review-editor.json",
    "review-cycles/cycle-1/review-researcher.json",
    "review-cycles/cycle-1/review-citation_checker.json",
    "review-cycles/cycle-1/review-visualization_reviewer.json",
    "data/evaluation-run.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T08:41:59.505516+00:00"
}