{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked registration: the registered contrast (observed rain vs explicitly rain-free), all four preregistered outcomes, week/season fixed effects with wind and temperature controls, HC3 robust intervals, 4,000-draw deterministic bootstraps, and Holm correction across the outcome family are all present and consistent between analysis.json, the article, the table, and the claim ledger. Sample gates (181 condition, 1,237 comparable games) clear the registered withholding floors. The article correctly frames the dropback result as suggestive after Holm adjustment (p = 0.097), keeps the completion-rate result as the only multiplicity-surviving finding, and consistently separates retrospective association from causal or predictive claims, including an explicit statement that observed postgame rain cannot be used as a pregame forecast input. All required artifacts (registration, results, reproducibility, station agreement, source receipts, figure, table, claim ledger) are present with hashes.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "registration_match",
      "evidence": "locked_registration.outcomes vs analysis.json effects",
      "recommendation": "None required; executed outcomes, controls, uncertainty, and multiplicity handling match the locked registration exactly."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "claim_ledger_consistency",
      "evidence": "claim_ledger.claims vs analysis.json effects and publication_assets tables",
      "recommendation": "None required; all numeric claims in the ledger and article match the analysis outputs."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "freshness",
      "evidence": "freshness_requirement.expected_season = 2025; source_lag.available_through = 2024; analysis.data_through = 2024",
      "recommendation": "Disclosed scope limitation, not a blocker: the study stops at the 2024 season because observed NOAA weather data lags the play-by-play data, which the article and methods state explicitly with an automatic refresh on the next complete weather season. This satisfies the minimum_season = 2024 floor under the disclosed source-lag exception."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "predictive_causal_separation",
      "evidence": "article blocks 'Where the evidence stops'; research_audit.leakage_checks.prediction_boundary; temporal_validation",
      "recommendation": "None required; the article explicitly disclaims causal interpretation and pregame-forecast use, and the scope claim in the ledger is supported."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/station-agreement.json",
    "data/study-decisions.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/gates.json",
    "data/source-manifest.json",
    "data/source-receipts/nflverse.json",
    "data/source-receipts/noaa-global-hourly.json",
    "data/source-receipts/wikidata-stadiums.json",
    "figures/weather-rain-playcalling-effects.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T08:41:41.338698+00:00"
}