{
  "series_id": "weather-rare-conditions",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T084631Z-weather-rare-conditions-gh33735049340",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-rain-sample-shortfall",
      "text": "What Happens to Deep Targets in Heavy Rain? observed 39 condition games through 2024, 36 fewer than its preregistered minimum of 75; it was withheld as a standalone article and retained for this combined summary.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
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      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-rain-deep_target_rate-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered What Happens to Deep Targets in Heavy Rain? comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for deep-target rate was -0.0 pts, with a 95% interval from -1.1 pts to +1.0 pts and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
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      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-rain-deep_completion_rate-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered What Happens to Deep Targets in Heavy Rain? comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for deep completion rate was +1.5 pts, with a 95% interval from -4.2 pts to +7.1 pts and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
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      ],
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      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-rain-deep_target_epa-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered What Happens to Deep Targets in Heavy Rain? comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for epa per deep target was -0.053, with a 95% interval from -0.332 to +0.226 and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
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        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
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        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-wind-interaction-sample-shortfall",
      "text": "When Rain and Wind Hit the Same NFL Game observed 19 condition games through 2024, 56 fewer than its preregistered minimum of 75; it was withheld as a standalone article and retained for this combined summary.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
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        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-wind-interaction-neutral_dropback_rate-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered When Rain and Wind Hit the Same NFL Game comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for neutral early-down dropback rate was -0.7 pts, with a 95% interval from -5.5 pts to +4.0 pts and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
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        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
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        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-wind-interaction-pass_epa_per_dropback-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered When Rain and Wind Hit the Same NFL Game comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for pass epa per dropback was -0.046, with a 95% interval from -0.143 to +0.052 and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
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      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-wind-interaction-field_goal_accuracy-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered When Rain and Wind Hit the Same NFL Game comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for field-goal accuracy was -2.2 pts, with a 95% interval from -15.8 pts to +11.4 pts and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
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        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-rain-wind-interaction-total_points-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered When Rain and Wind Hit the Same NFL Game comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for combined points was -4.1 points, with a 95% interval from -9.6 points to +1.4 points and Holm p = 0.585; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
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      ],
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        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-offense-sample-shortfall",
      "text": "How Snow Changes Fantasy Football observed 25 condition games through 2024, 50 fewer than its preregistered minimum of 75; it was withheld as a standalone article and retained for this combined summary.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
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        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-offense-neutral_dropback_rate-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered How Snow Changes Fantasy Football comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for neutral early-down dropback rate was -0.8 pts, with a 95% interval from -3.9 pts to +2.4 pts and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
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        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-offense-rushing_rate-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered How Snow Changes Fantasy Football comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for neutral early-down rushing rate was +0.8 pts, with a 95% interval from -2.4 pts to +3.9 pts and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-offense-pass_epa_per_dropback-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered How Snow Changes Fantasy Football comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for pass epa per dropback was -0.009, with a 95% interval from -0.099 to +0.082 and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-offense-field_goal_accuracy-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered How Snow Changes Fantasy Football comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for field-goal accuracy was -0.9 pts, with a 95% interval from -10.5 pts to +8.8 pts and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-wind-interaction-sample-shortfall",
      "text": "What Snow and Wind Do Together observed 3 condition games through 2024, 47 fewer than its preregistered minimum of 50; it was withheld as a standalone article and retained for this combined summary.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-wind-interaction-neutral_dropback_rate-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered What Snow and Wind Do Together comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for neutral early-down dropback rate was +5.0 pts, with a 95% interval from +0.8 pts to +9.2 pts and Holm p = 0.076; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-wind-interaction-average_depth_of_target-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered What Snow and Wind Do Together comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for average target depth was +0.26 yards, with a 95% interval from -0.76 yards to +1.27 yards and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-wind-interaction-pass_epa_per_dropback-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered What Snow and Wind Do Together comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for pass epa per dropback was -0.021, with a 95% interval from -0.180 to +0.138 and Holm p = 1.000; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
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      "source_urls": [
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        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-snow-wind-interaction-total_points-descriptive",
      "text": "In the underpowered What Snow and Wind Do Together comparison, the descriptive adjusted difference for combined points was -6.6 points, with a 95% interval from -15.3 points to +2.1 points and Holm p = 0.412; this is not a confirmed effect.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#components",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
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        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
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        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "rare-weather-summary-scope",
      "text": "The four contrasts are not pooled, the component studies remain withheld, and observed postgame weather does not establish causal or pregame forecast value.",
      "kind": "limitation",
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        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "research-registration.json"
      ],
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        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
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      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}