{
  "series_id": "weather-rare-conditions",
  "version": "1.2.0-rare-summary-v1",
  "question": "What can the available NFL samples tell fantasy managers about heavy rain, rain plus wind, snow, and snow plus wind without overstating underpowered evidence?",
  "hypothesis": "The registered heavy-rain, rain-plus-wind, snow, and snow-plus-wind samples are too small for four standalone inferential articles and should be reported together without pooling their distinct contrasts.",
  "estimand": "Evidence sufficiency and descriptive adjusted associations for four separately registered rare-weather contrasts; the contrasts are not pooled.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games from 2018 through 2024 with observed weather",
  "outcomes": [
    "average_depth_of_target",
    "deep_completion_rate",
    "deep_target_epa",
    "deep_target_rate",
    "field_goal_accuracy",
    "neutral_dropback_rate",
    "pass_epa_per_dropback",
    "rushing_rate",
    "total_points"
  ],
  "features": [
    "heavy rain",
    "rain plus 15+ mph wind",
    "observed snow",
    "snow plus 15+ mph wind"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "Retrospective observed conditions are used only for historical research and cannot enter a pregame projection feature.",
  "baselines": [
    "maximum hourly rain at least 2.5 mm vs rain-free",
    "observed rain plus 15+ mph wind vs dry and below 15 mph",
    "observed snow vs explicitly snow-free",
    "observed snow plus 15+ mph wind vs no snow and calm"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "condition games versus registered minimum",
    "adjusted game-level difference",
    "95% HC3 robust interval",
    "Holm-adjusted p-value within each registered family"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "The original 4,000-draw bootstrap and HC3 intervals are preserved per study.",
  "sensitivities": [
    "No pooling across distinct weather contrasts",
    "Original week, season, wind, and temperature controls",
    "Primary and secondary station rain classification",
    "Deterministic two-run result hash"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "any component lacks a combine-with-summary decision and reason",
    "any source, observation, station-agreement, or reproducibility gate fails",
    "the article presents a descriptive component estimate as a confirmed weather effect"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T07:21:31.730610+00:00"
}