{
  "role": "code_methods_reviewer",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The bundle implements the locked registration faithfully: all four rare-weather contrasts are kept separate with their registered baselines, controls, HC3 intervals, 4,000-draw bootstrap intervals, and within-family Holm p-values preserved; no pooling of exposed-game counts occurs anywhere in the analysis, tables, or prose. Temporal leakage is addressed (observed postgame weather excluded from pregame feature stores; no forecast-skill claim), missingness is reconciled (2,127 input rows, 869 excluded for unusable observed weather, 1,258 analyzed), and reproducibility is evidenced by a stated deterministic seed policy and identical result hashes across two complete executions. All four components correctly remain below their preregistered floors and are reported only as descriptive context in a combined evidence-status summary, matching the registered hypothesis and withhold conditions. Claim-ledger numbers match the analysis JSON and article prose, including the correctly caveated snow-plus-wind dropback estimate whose HC3 interval excludes zero but whose bootstrap interval includes zero.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "approved_inputs",
      "evidence": "provenance[0].seasons includes 2025 while locked_registration.population is 2018 through 2024 and analysis.data_through is 2024",
      "recommendation": "Confirm the 2025 season assets in the nflverse source receipt were not ingested into the analyzed sample, or trim the receipt to the registered window; the analysis JSON and source_lag handling suggest 2025 rows were not used, but the receipt is broader than the registered population."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "artifact_consistency",
      "evidence": "editorial_direction instructs 'Put details in the tables ... instead of repeating every interval in prose,' but article blocks repeat full intervals and Holm p-values for all 15 estimates",
      "recommendation": "Cosmetic only; no numeric or inferential error results, but the prose could be tightened to match the editorial contract."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "uncertainty_reporting",
      "evidence": "weather-snow-wind-interaction neutral_dropback_rate has an HC3 interval excluding zero (+0.008 to +0.092) alongside a bootstrap interval including zero and Holm p = 0.076 on 3 games",
      "recommendation": "The article already handles this correctly by deferring to the bootstrap interval and Holm p-value and labeling the estimate noise; retain this framing if the component is ever revisited with more games."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/study-decisions.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/station-agreement.json",
    "data/source-manifest.json",
    "data/source-receipts/nflverse.json",
    "data/source-receipts/noaa-global-hourly.json",
    "data/source-receipts/wikidata-stadiums.json",
    "figures/rare-weather-sample-sufficiency.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T08:47:15.095178+00:00"
}