{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis and article match the locked registration. All four registered contrasts are preserved separately with no pooling; sample shortfalls (39/75, 19/75, 25/75, 3/50) and withholding decisions are reported accurately; every numeric claim in the article, tables, and claim ledger traces to the analysis JSON with matching point estimates, HC3 intervals, and Holm p-values; descriptive estimates are consistently framed as underpowered context rather than confirmed effects; observed postgame weather is explicitly separated from forecast and causal claims; all required artifacts (registration, receipts, reproducibility hashes, figure, tables) are present with matching hashes; mechanical checks and gates all pass.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "article-editorial-conformance",
      "evidence": "article_markdown and article blocks repeat most 95% intervals and Holm p-values in prose, while editorial_direction asks to put details in tables and the Research File instead of repeating every interval in prose.",
      "recommendation": "Consider trimming the per-estimate interval recitals in prose and pointing readers to rare-weather-effect-table, though the current text is accurate and does not overstate the evidence."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "descriptive-estimate-framing",
      "evidence": "The snow-plus-wind neutral dropback estimate (+5.0 pts, Holm p = 0.076, 3 games) is the only estimate whose HC3 interval excludes zero; the article correctly notes the bootstrap interval includes zero and treats it as noise, satisfying the withhold_if condition against presenting descriptive estimates as confirmed effects.",
      "recommendation": "No change required; retain the existing caveat language if the article is revised for any reason."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "scope-limitation",
      "evidence": "Weather data run through 2024 while the requested window extends to 2025 (source_lag handling disclosed); all four components remain below preregistered exposed-game floors.",
      "recommendation": "This is a disclosed scope limitation, not a blocker. On the next data refresh, re-run the registered contrasts and update the evidence-status decision if any component reaches its floor."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/study-decisions.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/source-receipts/nflverse.json",
    "data/source-receipts/noaa-global-hourly.json",
    "data/source-receipts/wikidata-stadiums.json",
    "figures/rare-weather-sample-sufficiency.png",
    "research-registration.json",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T08:46:58.748566+00:00"
}