{
  "series_id": "weather-domes-offense",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T090237Z-weather-domes-offense-gh33736509842",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-domes-offense-sample",
      "text": "The registered sample gate for fixed/retractable roof recorded closed or dome vs outdoor/open contains 640 condition games and 1,487 control games through the 2025 NFL season.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-domes-offense-total_points",
      "text": "Combined points averaged 48.3 in dome or closed roof games and 44.8 in outdoor or open roof games; the adjusted change was -2.1 points with a 95% interval from -5.7 points to +1.5 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.318.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-domes-offense-neutral_dropback_rate",
      "text": "Neutral early-down dropback rate averaged 53.9% in dome or closed roof games and 53.7% in outdoor or open roof games; the adjusted change was +1.9 pts with a 95% interval from -0.1 pts to +3.9 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.178.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-domes-offense-pass_epa_per_dropback",
      "text": "Pass EPA per dropback averaged 0.038 in dome or closed roof games and 0.037 in outdoor or open roof games; the adjusted change was -0.050 with a 95% interval from -0.099 to -0.001 and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.178.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-domes-offense-deep_target_rate",
      "text": "Deep-target rate averaged 10.9% in dome or closed roof games and 10.8% in outdoor or open roof games; the adjusted change was +0.8 pts with a 95% interval from -0.3 pts to +1.8 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.318.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-domes-offense-scope",
      "text": "The estimates are retrospective associations from observed game conditions; they do not establish causality or prove that a pregame weather forecast improves fantasy projections.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "data/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}