{
  "series_id": "weather-domes-offense",
  "version": "1.2.0",
  "question": "Do dome and closed-roof games retain higher scoring, passing efficiency, and deep-target rates after the participating teams are accounted for?",
  "hypothesis": "Dome and closed-roof NFL games retain higher scoring and passing efficiency than outdoor or open-roof games after home- and away-team composition is controlled.",
  "estimand": "Observed game-level association for fixed/retractable roof recorded closed or dome vs outdoor/open; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games from 2018 through the latest usable source season",
  "outcomes": [
    "total_points",
    "neutral_dropback_rate",
    "pass_epa_per_dropback",
    "deep_target_rate"
  ],
  "features": [
    "registered weather or roof contrast",
    "week and season fixed effects; home team and away team fixed effects"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "This is a retrospective completed-season association study. Observed conditions are never eligible as pregame projection inputs.",
  "baselines": [
    "fixed/retractable roof recorded closed or dome vs outdoor/open",
    "Adjusted and unadjusted group comparisons"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "Combined points",
    "Neutral early-down dropback rate",
    "Pass EPA per dropback",
    "Deep-target rate"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000 game-level bootstrap draws and HC3 robust OLS intervals",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Week and season fixed effects",
    "Holm correction across the preregistered outcome family",
    "Per-outcome denominator reconciliation",
    "Home- and away-team composition controls"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "fewer than 1000 comparable games",
    "fewer than 250 condition games",
    "source rights, observation coverage, station agreement, or reproducibility fails"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T07:21:31.730610+00:00"
}