{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked registration: the registered contrast (fixed/retractable roof recorded closed or dome vs outdoor/open), all four preregistered outcomes, week/season and home/away-team fixed effects, HC3 robust intervals, 4,000-draw bootstraps, and Holm correction across the outcome family are all present and consistent between analysis.json, the article, the table, and the claim ledger. Sample gates (640 condition, 1,487 control, 2,127 comparable) clear the registered floors. All required artifacts exist with hashes, reproducibility is deterministic (two executions, identical result hashes), and the article consistently frames results as retrospective associations, explicitly disclaims causality, and keeps observed postgame conditions separate from any pregame forecast use. The article transparently discloses the bootstrap-vs-HC3 disagreement for combined points and the pass-EPA interval, and correctly rests the headline on the registered adjusted estimate.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "registration_match",
      "evidence": "locked_registration.outcomes vs analysis.json effects; article methods and table",
      "recommendation": "None. All four registered outcomes, controls, uncertainty methods, and the Holm family are executed as registered."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "claim_article_consistency",
      "evidence": "Article lead, table rows, and claim_ledger all report 48.3 vs 44.8, adjusted -2.1 (-5.7 to +1.5), Holm p = 0.318; secondary outcomes match analysis.json to rounding.",
      "recommendation": "None. Numeric claims are ledgered and supported."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "uncertainty_disclosure",
      "evidence": "For total_points the game-level bootstrap interval (+2.2 to +4.8, bootstrap p = 0.0) excludes zero while the registered adjusted HC3 interval spans it; the article discloses this and states the conclusion rests on the adjusted estimate.",
      "recommendation": "No change required. The disagreement is disclosed in the article body and limitations, and the registered estimand governs."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "causal_predictive_separation",
      "evidence": "Article limitations and closing paragraph; research_audit withholding and leakage checks; editorial_direction",
      "recommendation": "None. Observed conditions are never described as forecast inputs and no causal venue effect is claimed."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "artifact_completeness",
      "evidence": "artifact_hashes include registration, results, reproducibility, source receipts, figure, table, claim ledger, and review cycle files; mechanical_checks all true.",
      "recommendation": "None."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/study-decisions.json",
    "data/gates.json",
    "data/source-manifest.json",
    "data/source-receipts/nflverse.json",
    "figures/weather-domes-offense-effects.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T09:09:58.646843+00:00"
}