{
  "role": "statistician",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The article's numeric claims match the supplied results exactly (group means, adjusted differences, HC3 intervals, Holm-adjusted p-values, bootstrap intervals, and sample counts all reconcile). The estimand is locked as a retrospective association, the article repeatedly disclaims causality and pregame-forecast use, denominators reconcile (640 + 1,487 = 2,127, zero undefined games per outcome), multiplicity is handled via Holm across the preregistered family, and the bootstrap/HC3 disagreement for combined points and pass EPA is disclosed rather than hidden. No temporal leakage, fabricated evidence, or irreproducibility is present.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "For combined points, the game-level bootstrap interval (+2.2 to +4.8) excludes zero while the registered HC3 adjusted interval (-5.7 to +1.5) spans it; for pass EPA per dropback the HC3 interval excludes zero while the bootstrap interval straddles it.",
      "recommendation": "The article already flags both disagreements in text and limitations and correctly rests the headline on the registered adjusted estimate; keep this framing intact in any edits."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "baseline_fairness",
      "evidence": "The adjusted model includes week, season, home-team, and away-team fixed effects but no richer covariates (e.g., quarterback, injuries, weather at open-air games).",
      "recommendation": "The article stays within the locked estimand and does not overclaim; no change required, but avoid language implying the roof effect is fully isolated beyond team composition."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "scope",
      "evidence": "All estimates are retrospective associations from observed postgame roof state through 2025 and cannot support pregame projection claims.",
      "recommendation": "A visible limitation noting the historical, non-forecast scope must remain in the published article; the current limitations list satisfies this and must not be removed."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T09:10:06.163332+00:00"
}