{
  "series_id": "weather-open-closed-roof",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T093417Z-weather-open-closed-roof-gh33739452937",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-open-closed-roof-sample",
      "text": "The registered sample gate for recorded open vs closed games within retractable-roof stadiums observed in both states contains 41 condition games and 292 control games through the 2025 NFL season.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-open-closed-roof-total_points",
      "text": "Combined points averaged 49.1 in open retractable roof games and 48.8 in closed retractable roof games; the adjusted change was +2.5 points with a 95% interval from -3.5 points to +8.4 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.536.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-open-closed-roof-pass_epa_per_dropback",
      "text": "Pass EPA per dropback averaged 0.080 in open retractable roof games and 0.044 in closed retractable roof games; the adjusted change was +0.041 with a 95% interval from -0.031 to +0.113 and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.536.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-open-closed-roof-field_goal_accuracy",
      "text": "Field-goal accuracy averaged 92.4% in open retractable roof games and 85.7% in closed retractable roof games; the adjusted change was +9.6 pts with a 95% interval from +3.6 pts to +15.6 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.007.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-open-closed-roof-kicker_fantasy_points",
      "text": "Combined kicker fantasy points averaged 18.7 in open retractable roof games and 17.6 in closed retractable roof games; the adjusted change was +3.0 points with a 95% interval from +0.5 points to +5.5 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.060.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-open-closed-roof-scope",
      "text": "The estimates are retrospective associations from observed game conditions; they do not establish causality or prove that a pregame weather forecast improves fantasy projections.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "data/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}