{
  "series_id": "weather-open-closed-roof",
  "version": "1.2.0",
  "question": "Within retractable-roof stadiums observed in both states, do scoring, passing efficiency, field-goal accuracy, or kicker points change when the roof is open?",
  "hypothesis": "Within retractable-roof stadiums observed in both states, open-roof games have lower scoring, passing efficiency, field-goal accuracy, and kicker fantasy points.",
  "estimand": "Observed game-level association for recorded open vs closed games within retractable-roof stadiums observed in both states; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games from 2018 through the latest usable source season",
  "outcomes": [
    "total_points",
    "pass_epa_per_dropback",
    "field_goal_accuracy",
    "kicker_fantasy_points"
  ],
  "features": [
    "registered weather or roof contrast",
    "week and season fixed effects; average field-goal distance; stadium id and home team and away team fixed effects",
    "week and season fixed effects; stadium id and home team and away team fixed effects"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "This is a retrospective completed-season association study. Observed conditions are never eligible as pregame projection inputs.",
  "baselines": [
    "recorded open vs closed games within retractable-roof stadiums observed in both states",
    "Adjusted and unadjusted group comparisons"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "Combined points",
    "Pass EPA per dropback",
    "Field-goal accuracy",
    "Combined kicker fantasy points"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000 game-level bootstrap draws and HC3 robust OLS intervals",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Week and season fixed effects",
    "Holm correction across the preregistered outcome family",
    "Per-outcome denominator reconciliation",
    "Average field-goal distance control for the accuracy outcome",
    "Home- and away-team composition controls",
    "Within-stadium roof-state comparison"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "fewer than 250 comparable games",
    "fewer than 30 condition games",
    "source rights, observation coverage, station agreement, or reproducibility fails"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T07:21:31.730610+00:00"
}