{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis and article match the locked registration. The registered contrast (recorded open vs closed games within retractable-roof stadiums observed in both states), population (NFL regular-season games 2018 through latest usable season), four preregistered outcomes, controls (week/season/stadium/home/away fixed effects plus average field-goal distance for the accuracy outcome), Holm correction, 4,000-draw bootstrap with HC3 intervals, and withholding gates (41 condition games, 333 comparable games, above the 30/250 floors) are all present and consistent. All required artifacts exist with hashes, including the results table, effect figure, claim ledger, registration, reproducibility records, and provenance. Numeric claims in the article and claim ledger match the analysis effects. Predictive and causal claims are properly separated: the article explicitly states the roof state is a postgame observation, not a pregame forecast input, and that the study does not establish causality. The directional hypothesis (open-roof games lower on all outcomes) was not supported for any outcome, and the article reports this faithfully rather than reframing the hypothesis. No material departure from the locked registration and no missing required artifact were found.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "article-analysis consistency",
      "evidence": "Article and claim-ledger numbers (49.1/48.8, +2.5, CI -3.5 to +8.4, Holm p 0.536; 0.080/0.044, +0.041, CI -0.031 to +0.113; 92.4%/85.7%, +9.6 pts, CI +3.6 to +15.6, Holm p 0.007; 18.7/17.6, +3.0, CI +0.5 to +5.5, Holm p 0.060) match analysis.json effects exactly.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "predictive-causal separation",
      "evidence": "Article states the roof state is known after the fact, cannot be projected pregame, and does not establish causality; limitations and methods repeat this; leakage and temporal-validation checks passed.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "disclosed scope limitation",
      "evidence": "The open-roof condition has only 41 games (39 for field-goal accuracy), producing wide intervals on the null outcomes; the article discloses this prominently. The kicker fantasy-points result (Holm p 0.060) did not clear the corrected threshold and the article correctly labels it suggestive.",
      "recommendation": "None required; the limitation is disclosed as registered."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "denominator reconciliation",
      "evidence": "Field-goal accuracy is undefined in 5 comparable games (328 defined: 39 open, 289 closed); per-outcome denominator accounting is reported and matches the article's methods.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "reproducibility",
      "evidence": "Two complete executions produced identical result hashes (8f950d77...); bootstrap seeds derived per outcome from SHA-256 of study:outcome labels; all mechanical checks passed.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/study-decisions.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/gates.json",
    "data/source-manifest.json",
    "data/source-receipts/nflverse.json",
    "figures/weather-open-closed-roof-effects.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T09:34:48.287531+00:00"
}