{
  "role": "statistician",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The article's numeric claims match the supplied effects, denominators reconcile (333 comparable games; field-goal accuracy defined in 328 with 39/289 split disclosed), the contrast matches the locked estimand, Holm correction covers the preregistered family, and the article consistently frames results as retrospective association with the small open-roof sample and wide intervals kept prominent. No blocking condition applies.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#effects (kicker_fantasy_points: bootstrap_ci_95_lower -0.971, bootstrap_ci_95_upper 3.248, bootstrap_p_value 0.295 vs adjusted_ci_95_lower 0.468, adjusted_ci_95_upper 5.494, p_value 0.020)",
      "recommendation": "The bootstrap interval for combined kicker fantasy points is substantially wider than the HC3 interval and its p-value (0.295) disagrees with the model p-value (0.020). The article already labels this outcome suggestive (Holm p = 0.060), which is the right posture, but the published caveat should acknowledge that the bootstrap uncertainty for kicker points is weaker than the HC3 interval suggests."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "selection effects",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#estimand; article limitations",
      "recommendation": "Roof state is chosen by teams in specific conditions, so the open-roof condition is not exchangeable with closed-roof games even after week, season, stadium, and team fixed effects. The article discloses this and makes no causal claim; the disclosure must remain visible in the published piece."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "temporal leakage",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#research_audit.temporal_validation; article limitations",
      "recommendation": "Recorded roof state is a postgame observation and cannot be used as a pregame projection input. The article states this explicitly; keep that framing intact and never present roof state as forecastable."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "multiplicity",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#effects (field_goal_accuracy holm_adjusted_p 0.0069; kicker_fantasy_points holm_adjusted_p 0.060)",
      "recommendation": "Only field-goal accuracy clears the Holm-corrected bar. The article correctly treats kicker fantasy points as suggestive and does not overclaim; maintain that distinction in any headline or email copy."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/gates.json",
    "figures/weather-open-closed-roof-effects.png",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "provenance.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T09:35:11.302040+00:00"
}