{
  "research_audit": {
    "temporal_validation": {
      "name": "observed-versus-forecast boundary",
      "passed": true,
      "details": "Postgame observations support historical research only and cannot enter a pregame projection feature."
    },
    "baseline_checks": [
      {
        "name": "registered contrast",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph"
      },
      {
        "name": "adjusted and unadjusted estimates",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Every outcome preserves group means plus adjusted and unadjusted differences."
      }
    ],
    "uncertainty": {
      "name": "bootstrap and robust intervals",
      "passed": true,
      "details": "Every outcome reports a bootstrap comparison and an HC3 robust adjusted interval."
    },
    "missingness": {
      "input_rows": 2127,
      "analyzed_rows": 908,
      "excluded_rows": 1219,
      "missing_by_field": {
        "outside_registered_contrast_or_incomplete": 1219
      },
      "reconciled": true
    },
    "sensitivity_checks": [
      {
        "name": "multiplicity correction",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Holm-adjusted p-values cover the preregistered outcome family."
      },
      {
        "name": "per-outcome denominator accounting",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Each outcome records its own condition, control, and undefined-game counts; field-goal accuracy is undefined when neither team attempted a field goal."
      },
      {
        "name": "deterministic bootstrap",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Each outcome bootstrap uses a SHA-256-derived seed label and two complete analysis executions produced the same result hash."
      },
      {
        "name": "station agreement",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "At least 1,000 games have paired-station wind readings and their mean absolute difference is no more than 2.5 m/s."
      }
    ],
    "leakage_checks": [
      {
        "name": "prediction boundary",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "The article cannot describe observed postgame weather as a forecast input."
      }
    ],
    "withholding_checks": [
      {
        "name": "study sample gate",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "101 condition and 908 comparable games cleared the registered floors."
      },
      {
        "name": "evidence bundle gates",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Rights, coverage, station agreement, and reproducibility gates passed."
      },
      {
        "name": "association scope",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "The study is limited to association and does not claim causality."
      }
    ]
  },
  "study": "Do NFL Kicker Fantasy Points Fall at 10, 12, or 15+ MPH Wind?",
  "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
  "data_through": 2024,
  "population": "NFL regular-season games",
  "estimand": "Observed association for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph, with adjusted and unadjusted game-level comparisons.",
  "sample": {
    "condition_games": 101,
    "control_games": 807,
    "comparable_games": 908,
    "minimum_complete_games": 750,
    "minimum_condition_games": 100,
    "outcome_denominators": {
      "wind-10-mph:field_goal_attempts": {
        "condition_games": 411,
        "control_games": 807,
        "total_games": 1218,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
      },
      "wind-10-mph:field_goal_accuracy": {
        "condition_games": 409,
        "control_games": 796,
        "total_games": 1205,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 13
      },
      "wind-10-mph:kicker_fantasy_points": {
        "condition_games": 411,
        "control_games": 807,
        "total_games": 1218,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
      },
      "wind-12-mph:field_goal_attempts": {
        "condition_games": 249,
        "control_games": 807,
        "total_games": 1056,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
      },
      "wind-12-mph:field_goal_accuracy": {
        "condition_games": 247,
        "control_games": 796,
        "total_games": 1043,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 13
      },
      "wind-12-mph:kicker_fantasy_points": {
        "condition_games": 249,
        "control_games": 807,
        "total_games": 1056,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
      },
      "wind-15-mph:field_goal_attempts": {
        "condition_games": 101,
        "control_games": 807,
        "total_games": 908,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
      },
      "wind-15-mph:field_goal_accuracy": {
        "condition_games": 100,
        "control_games": 796,
        "total_games": 896,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 12
      },
      "wind-15-mph:kicker_fantasy_points": {
        "condition_games": 101,
        "control_games": 807,
        "total_games": 908,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
      }
    }
  },
  "contrast": "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
  "effects": [
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-10-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 10+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "10+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 1218,
      "outcome": "field_goal_attempts",
      "label": "Combined field-goal attempts",
      "units": "attempts-per-game",
      "condition_games": 411,
      "control_games": 807,
      "condition_estimate": 3.6472019464720193,
      "control_estimate": 3.874845105328377,
      "unadjusted_difference": -0.2276431588563574,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -0.4393129460288169,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": -0.0207373438616484,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0325,
      "p_value": 0.0316225421492348,
      "adjusted_difference": -0.2254491332638246,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.1049015536732299,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -0.4310561784633553,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": -0.019842088064294,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 0.0948676264477044
    },
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-10-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 10+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "10+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 1218,
      "outcome": "field_goal_accuracy",
      "label": "Field-goal accuracy",
      "units": "share",
      "condition_games": 409,
      "control_games": 796,
      "condition_estimate": 0.8214848449567275,
      "control_estimate": 0.8468253515049997,
      "unadjusted_difference": -0.0253405065482722,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -0.0529988267042293,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": 0.0002367886560338,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0525,
      "p_value": 0.0424961309414698,
      "adjusted_difference": -0.0266566716269095,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.0131402422937933,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -0.0524115465227445,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": -0.0009017967310746,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c; average field-goal distance",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 0.0948676264477044
    },
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-10-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 10+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "10+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 1218,
      "outcome": "kicker_fantasy_points",
      "label": "Combined kicker fantasy points",
      "units": "points-per-game",
      "condition_games": 411,
      "control_games": 807,
      "condition_estimate": 14.652068126520682,
      "control_estimate": 15.995043370508055,
      "unadjusted_difference": -1.3429752439873734,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -1.9843646831103767,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": -0.7024699481724701,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0,
      "p_value": 4.797920054349318e-05,
      "adjusted_difference": -1.3377676905830933,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.3290731957649856,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -1.982751154282465,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": -0.6927842268837215,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 0.0003838336043479
    },
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-12-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 12+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "12+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 1056,
      "outcome": "field_goal_attempts",
      "label": "Combined field-goal attempts",
      "units": "attempts-per-game",
      "condition_games": 249,
      "control_games": 807,
      "condition_estimate": 3.538152610441767,
      "control_estimate": 3.874845105328377,
      "unadjusted_difference": -0.3366924948866097,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -0.5748622743763158,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": -0.0853305414968425,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0075,
      "p_value": 0.0079492473699721,
      "adjusted_difference": -0.3276392626025574,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.1234409810203485,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -0.5695835854024406,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": -0.0856949398026742,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 0.0397462368498606
    },
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-12-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 12+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "12+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 1056,
      "outcome": "field_goal_accuracy",
      "label": "Field-goal accuracy",
      "units": "share",
      "condition_games": 247,
      "control_games": 796,
      "condition_estimate": 0.7960285328706381,
      "control_estimate": 0.8468253515049997,
      "unadjusted_difference": -0.0507968186343615,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -0.0846873166633979,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": -0.0178054914574684,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0,
      "p_value": 0.0028873256350404,
      "adjusted_difference": -0.0487245327505541,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.0163533358359765,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -0.0807770709890682,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": -0.0166719945120401,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c; average field-goal distance",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 0.0173239538102429
    },
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-12-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 12+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "12+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 1056,
      "outcome": "kicker_fantasy_points",
      "label": "Combined kicker fantasy points",
      "units": "points-per-game",
      "condition_games": 249,
      "control_games": 807,
      "condition_estimate": 14.152610441767068,
      "control_estimate": 15.995043370508055,
      "unadjusted_difference": -1.8424329287409869,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -2.5889084217912552,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": -1.0663591167644548,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0,
      "p_value": 4.583580049551447e-06,
      "adjusted_difference": -1.7901149748676133,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.3905991789947306,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -2.555689365697285,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": -1.0245405840379411,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 4.125222044596302e-05
    },
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-15-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "15+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 908,
      "outcome": "field_goal_attempts",
      "label": "Combined field-goal attempts",
      "units": "attempts-per-game",
      "condition_games": 101,
      "control_games": 807,
      "condition_estimate": 3.435643564356436,
      "control_estimate": 3.874845105328377,
      "unadjusted_difference": -0.4392015409719412,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -0.7673589384960801,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": -0.1160605837535424,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0055,
      "p_value": 0.0163582004330989,
      "adjusted_difference": -0.4082962203223149,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.1700650334396395,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -0.7416236858640084,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": -0.0749687547806214,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 0.0654328017323957
    },
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-15-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "15+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 908,
      "outcome": "field_goal_accuracy",
      "label": "Field-goal accuracy",
      "units": "share",
      "condition_games": 100,
      "control_games": 796,
      "condition_estimate": 0.8281785714285713,
      "control_estimate": 0.8468253515049997,
      "unadjusted_difference": -0.0186467800764283,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -0.0661185594277302,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": 0.0246793882834082,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.415,
      "p_value": 0.2559575491658309,
      "adjusted_difference": -0.0269622253754999,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.023734402489268,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -0.0734816542544652,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": 0.0195572035034654,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c; average field-goal distance",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 0.2559575491658309
    },
    {
      "study_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
      "publication_decision": "eligible",
      "contrast_id": "wind-15-mph",
      "contrast": "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
      "condition_label": "15+ mph wind",
      "control_label": "Below 10 mph",
      "contrast_comparable_games": 908,
      "outcome": "kicker_fantasy_points",
      "label": "Combined kicker fantasy points",
      "units": "points-per-game",
      "condition_games": 101,
      "control_games": 807,
      "condition_estimate": 13.910891089108912,
      "control_estimate": 15.995043370508055,
      "unadjusted_difference": -2.0841522813991435,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -3.081783466450735,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_upper": -1.046818678150343,
      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0,
      "p_value": 0.000416875525098,
      "adjusted_difference": -1.945742597719467,
      "robust_standard_error": 0.551332521216874,
      "adjusted_ci_95_lower": -3.02635433930454,
      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": -0.8651308561343938,
      "controls": "week and season fixed effects; air temp c",
      "holm_adjusted_p": 0.0029181286756866
    }
  ],
  "source_lag": {
    "available_through": "2024",
    "handling": "Weather-dependent studies stop at the latest available season; the next refresh retries automatically.",
    "requested_through": "2025",
    "source_key": "noaa-global-hourly"
  },
  "source_applicability": {
    "football_data_through": 2025,
    "observed_weather_data_through": 2024,
    "observed_weather_role": "defines the locked 10, 12, and 15 mph threshold comparisons"
  },
  "reproducibility": {
    "first_sha256": "dd8586d841f1396ebcfdecf9183eace6dd8c4a5e3126ca1f9ad77e8b7b5434aa",
    "matched": true,
    "second_sha256": "dd8586d841f1396ebcfdecf9183eace6dd8c4a5e3126ca1f9ad77e8b7b5434aa",
    "bootstrap_repetitions": 4000,
    "bootstrap_seed_policy": "NumPy PCG64 seeded separately for each outcome from the unsigned integer encoded by the first eight bytes of SHA-256(study_id:outcome).",
    "seed_labels": [
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-10-mph:field_goal_attempts",
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-10-mph:field_goal_accuracy",
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-10-mph:kicker_fantasy_points",
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-12-mph:field_goal_attempts",
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-12-mph:field_goal_accuracy",
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-12-mph:kicker_fantasy_points",
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-15-mph:field_goal_attempts",
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-15-mph:field_goal_accuracy",
      "weather-kickers-wind:wind-15-mph:kicker_fantasy_points"
    ]
  }
}
