{
  "series_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T101839Z-weather-kickers-wind-gh33743473291",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-sample",
      "text": "The registered sample gate for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph contains 101 condition games and 807 control games through the 2024 NFL season.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-10-mph-field_goal_attempts",
      "text": "Combined field-goal attempts averaged 3.65 in 10+ mph wind games and 3.87 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -0.23 attempts with a 95% interval from -0.43 attempts to -0.02 attempts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.095.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-10-mph-field_goal_accuracy",
      "text": "Field-goal accuracy averaged 82.1% in 10+ mph wind games and 84.7% in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -2.7 pts with a 95% interval from -5.2 pts to -0.1 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.095.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-10-mph-kicker_fantasy_points",
      "text": "Combined kicker fantasy points averaged 14.7 in 10+ mph wind games and 16.0 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -1.3 points with a 95% interval from -2.0 points to -0.7 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of <0.001.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-12-mph-field_goal_attempts",
      "text": "Combined field-goal attempts averaged 3.54 in 12+ mph wind games and 3.87 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -0.33 attempts with a 95% interval from -0.57 attempts to -0.09 attempts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.040.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-12-mph-field_goal_accuracy",
      "text": "Field-goal accuracy averaged 79.6% in 12+ mph wind games and 84.7% in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -4.9 pts with a 95% interval from -8.1 pts to -1.7 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.017.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-12-mph-kicker_fantasy_points",
      "text": "Combined kicker fantasy points averaged 14.2 in 12+ mph wind games and 16.0 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -1.8 points with a 95% interval from -2.6 points to -1.0 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of <0.001.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-15-mph-field_goal_attempts",
      "text": "Combined field-goal attempts averaged 3.44 in 15+ mph wind games and 3.87 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -0.41 attempts with a 95% interval from -0.74 attempts to -0.07 attempts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.065.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-15-mph-field_goal_accuracy",
      "text": "Field-goal accuracy averaged 82.8% in 15+ mph wind games and 84.7% in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -2.7 pts with a 95% interval from -7.3 pts to +2.0 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.256.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-wind-15-mph-kicker_fantasy_points",
      "text": "Combined kicker fantasy points averaged 13.9 in 15+ mph wind games and 16.0 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -1.9 points with a 95% interval from -3.0 points to -0.9 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.003.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-kickers-wind-scope",
      "text": "The estimates are retrospective associations from observed game conditions; they do not establish causality or prove that a pregame weather forecast improves fantasy projections.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "data/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}