{
  "series_id": "weather-kickers-wind",
  "version": "1.3.0",
  "question": "At which registered wind threshold do NFL field-goal attempts, accuracy, and combined kicker fantasy scoring separate from games below 10 mph?",
  "hypothesis": "As observed game-window wind crosses 10, 12, and 15 mph, NFL field-goal accuracy and combined kicker fantasy points decline relative to games below 10 mph.",
  "estimand": "Observed game-level association for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games from 2018 through the latest usable source season",
  "outcomes": [
    "field_goal_attempts",
    "field_goal_accuracy",
    "kicker_fantasy_points",
    "field_goal_attempts",
    "field_goal_accuracy",
    "kicker_fantasy_points",
    "field_goal_attempts",
    "field_goal_accuracy",
    "kicker_fantasy_points"
  ],
  "features": [
    "registered weather or roof contrast",
    "week and season fixed effects; air temp c",
    "week and season fixed effects; air temp c; average field-goal distance"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "This is a retrospective completed-season association study. Observed conditions are never eligible as pregame projection inputs.",
  "baselines": [
    "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
    "Adjusted and unadjusted group comparisons"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "Combined field-goal attempts",
    "Field-goal accuracy",
    "Combined kicker fantasy points",
    "Combined field-goal attempts",
    "Field-goal accuracy",
    "Combined kicker fantasy points",
    "Combined field-goal attempts",
    "Field-goal accuracy",
    "Combined kicker fantasy points"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000 game-level bootstrap draws and HC3 robust OLS intervals",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Week and season fixed effects",
    "Holm correction across the preregistered outcome family",
    "Per-outcome denominator reconciliation",
    "Average field-goal distance control for the accuracy outcome",
    "Temperature control without adjusting away the defining wind exposure",
    "Primary and secondary station wind mean absolute difference",
    "Locked 10, 12, and 15 mph threshold ladder"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "fewer than 750 comparable games",
    "fewer than 100 condition games",
    "source rights, observation coverage, station agreement, or reproducibility fails"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T09:59:24.719383+00:00"
}