{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked registration: the registered 15+ mph vs below-10-mph contrast, the locked 10/12/15 mph threshold ladder, the three preregistered outcomes, the specified controls (week/season fixed effects, air temperature, average field-goal distance only for accuracy), HC3 plus 4,000-draw bootstrap uncertainty, and Holm correction across the nine-comparison family are all present and consistently reported. All required artifacts exist with hashes (registration, results, effects CSV, figure, claim ledger, provenance, reproducibility). Sample gates cleared (101 condition, 807 control, 908 comparable vs floors of 100/750). The article and claim ledger numbers match the analysis effects exactly, null results (15+ mph accuracy) are labeled as null, and causal and predictive claims are explicitly separated from the association estimand. No material departure from the registration was found.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "registration_match",
      "evidence": "locked_registration baselines, outcomes, controls, uncertainty, and withhold_if gates all appear in analysis.research_audit and the article methods; the registered contrast (15+ mph vs below 10 mph) is executed with 101/807/908 games.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "artifact_completeness",
      "evidence": "artifact_hashes include data/registration.json, data/results.json, data/study-effects.csv, figures/weather-kickers-wind-effects.png, claim-ledger.json, provenance.json, and reproducibility.json; two executions produced identical result hashes.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "claim_consistency",
      "evidence": "All nine effect estimates, intervals, and Holm p-values in the article, table, and claim ledger match analysis.effects (e.g., 12+ mph accuracy -4.9 pts, 95% -8.1 to -1.7, Holm p 0.017; 15+ mph accuracy null, Holm p 0.256).",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "scope_limitations",
      "evidence": "Weather source data run through 2024 while football data run through 2025; the freshness requirement expects 2025 with minimum 2024. The study stops at the latest usable weather season, and the article and limitations disclose this explicitly.",
      "recommendation": "No change required before publication; the disclosed 2024 weather-data cutoff is a scope limitation, not a departure from the locked registration."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "causal_predictive_separation",
      "evidence": "The estimand is stated as an observed association, not a causal effect or forecast evaluation; the article's closing paragraph and limitations state that wind causality and pregame-forecast value are not established, and the leakage check confirms observed postgame weather is not described as a forecast input.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/study-decisions.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/station-agreement.json",
    "figures/weather-kickers-wind-effects.png",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T10:19:13.191991+00:00"
}