{
  "role": "statistician",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The article's numeric claims match the supplied effects, denominators reconcile (2127 = 908 analyzed + 1219 excluded; per-outcome accuracy denominators account for 13/13/12 undefined games), the registered 15+ mph contrast cleared its gates (101 condition, 807 control), Holm correction is applied across the full nine-comparison family, and the article correctly distinguishes multiplicity-surviving results (12+ mph attempts and accuracy, all scoring declines) from nulls (15+ mph accuracy) and borderline results (10+ mph attempts/accuracy at Holm p 0.095). No temporal leakage: observed postgame weather is explicitly framed as retrospective and not a pregame forecast input. No blocking findings.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "baseline_fairness",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#effects controls",
      "recommendation": "Controls are limited to week/season fixed effects, air temperature, and (accuracy only) average field-goal distance. Windy games may differ on unmeasured covariates (e.g., precipitation, outdoor-stadium mix, offensive quality). The article discloses this, but the association-only scope should remain prominent."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "uncertainty",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#effects wind-15-mph field_goal_accuracy",
      "recommendation": "The 15+ mph accuracy interval spans zero (-7.3 to +2.0) with only 100 defined condition games; the article correctly labels this a null finding and should not be read as evidence of no effect at higher wind."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "multiplicity",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#effects wind-10-mph attempts and accuracy Holm p 0.095",
      "recommendation": "The 10+ mph attempts and accuracy changes do not survive Holm correction; the article appropriately treats them as suggestive, and this framing must be preserved."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "historical_scope",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#source_lag",
      "recommendation": "Weather data stop at 2024 while football data run through 2025; the study is correctly limited to 2018-2024 and the article states this. No 2025-season extrapolation should be added."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/station-agreement.json",
    "figures/weather-kickers-wind-effects.png",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-registration.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T10:19:21.993934+00:00"
}